322
FXUS65 KSLC 312125
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
325 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weak cold fronts will brush the area
through early next week, bringing brief fluctuations temperatures
and a few chances of showers/thunderstorms to all but southern
Utah. Hotter temperatures arrive by later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Satellite and radar analysis this afternoon reveals
an area of shallow cumulus with embedded weak radar returns
stretching from roughly Cedar City to Price, with a trough axis
just upstream currently over Nevada. This weak trough axis is
expected to quickly push through the region by this evening, with
the meager convection in place rapidly receding as is slides
through. Vertical development this afternoon has been quite
limited thanks to minimal CAPE - barely 100 J/Kg per latest SPC
mesoanalysis. That said, with surface analysis showing dewpoints
in the 30s and resultant DCAPE of around a 1000 on the
mesoanalysis, there is still a risk of microburst winds into the
early evening, especially from the Wasatch Plateau eastward.

Brief ridging early tomorrow combined with increased southwest
flow will bring a warmer day, with the Wasatch Front reaching the
upper 80s and lower Washington County pushing the upper 90s.
Better instability combined with a bit of shear over northern Utah
will spark isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon, especially over the higher terrain east of I-15 and
from around Heber northward. Microburst winds remain the primary
threat. A few convective-allowing models suggest that convection
could extend as far west as around the Tooele Valley, so have
introduced a slight chance to the Wasatch Front. A weak and mostly
dry cold front will then slide through northern Utah later
Saturday night.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday), Issued 257 AM MDT...
Next week continues to show us a pattern of cool, hot, cool,
hotter sprinkled in with chances for rain and thunderstorms early
in the week. So let`s break this down a little more.

A stalled frontal boundary is forecast to sit across Utah early
Sunday morning, having passed through northern Utah Saturday. Ever
so slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind this boundary
with otherwise similar temperature forecast for the rest of the
state Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday. As this boundary
stalls, there will remain a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms in portions of the state. The difficult part of the
forecast here is where these showers are most likely. The latest
model runs are honing in on north and eastern Utah.

The latest model runs for Monday`s weather system, moreso
impacting areas north of us, does hint at a bit more of southward
progression. This increases the chance for rain and thunderstorms
Monday evening for about the northern third of Utah. What will
make this system different is the amount of moisture associated
with it. We are looking at PW values in the 180 to 200 percentiles
of normal coming in. So, this`ll bear watching of course if this
southward progression trend continues. Consistent with this
weather system is the passage of another cold front, which looks
to pass further south than the Saturday front. A much more
noticeable temperature drop will be noted for Tuesday in the wake
of this front.

The cooler temperatures won`t last long because a strong ridge of
high pressure is likely to remain in the forecast for the rest of
the week. While temperatures won`t be particularly hot in the
north Wednesday; in the south triple digit temperatures remain in
the forecast. A 70% chance to exceed 100 degrees still exists
across lower Washington County which will only increase headed
into Thursday. Northern and central valleys in Utah toward the
latter half of the week are forecast into the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds around 5-10kts are expected
to continue until a transition to light and southeasterly around 06-
08z. VFR conditions will prevail. There is a 10% chance of a few
isolated showers nearby after 12z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue until ~04z across a horizontally-
oriented, narrow area just north of KBCE and south of KDTA. These
showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow
winds. Light, diurnally-driven winds overnight will give way to
stronger southwesterly winds Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer conditions are in store to start the weekend
with breezy southwest winds and dry conditions. There is a low
chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms for northern Utah,
generally in the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache NF. A weak and generally dry
cold front Sunday will a bit cooler temperatures from around
Manti northward, with continued warm and very dry conditions over
southern Utah and breezy afternoon southwest winds. Wetting rain
chances with this front will be very low, with the only real
possibility in the Uintas. Another storm system is expected to
brush northern Utah Monday, with a low-end chance of light
precipitation and slightly elevated RHs. This will also lead to
continued breezy southwest winds over southern Utah.

From Tuesday onward, expect a notable warming trend as ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. By Thursday, most locations
will reach their warmest temperatures yet this year. There remains
a low but non-zero chance of elevated moisture aloft working into
the region by late in the week, which would bring a threat of
elevated showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Van Cleave
LONG TERM...NDeSmet
AVIATION...Cunningham
FIRE WEATHER...Van Cleave

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity