992
FXUS62 KTAE 250506
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
106 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The only change to the previous forecast was to add south Walton
county to the heat advisory for Tuesday with heat index values
expected to exceed 108 there.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The frontal boundary that is currently pushing south through the
region today is expected to become quasi-stationary across North
Florida on Tuesday. This will provide a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Areas north of the
Florida border will likely remain dry as dry air behind the frontal
boundary advects into SE Alabama and SW Georgia tonight. This dry
air will allow for deep layer mixing and very hot daytime high
temperatures, with 100 degrees forecast for much of this region.
Upper 90s to near 100 are expected for much of the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend as some cloud cover may keep temperatures slightly
cooler in these areas. Regardless, the moisture in place across the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend will lead to dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s. Dewpoints this high combined with upper 90s to near 100
degree high temperatures will lead to heat index values in the 108-
112 range across these aforementioned zones. Given these values, a
heat advisory has been issued for a large portion of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend for Tuesday. Those working or playing outside
for any length of time should take frequent breaks in the shade or
air conditioning and stay hydrated.

Thunderstorm activity has the highest chances of developing across
the Florida Big Bend on Tuesday. Forecast soundings are showing
concerning values of DCAPE and SBCAPE across the Florida Panhandle
and Big Bend on Tuesday with values in the 1400-1700 J/Kg range of
DCAPE and 3000-4000 J/Kg of SBCAPE currently forecast. These values
will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and even some
isolated hail with plenty of dry air aloft supporting hail growth.
While deep layer shear is around 15 knots, and not significant,
these values of DCAPE and SBCAPE coupled with an inverted V sounding
will promote the potential for strong damaging winds with any storms
that can develop in this environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Several shortwaves rounding the base of a trough across the Great
Lakes Region will bring with them a frontal feature that looks to
aid in forcing for ascent. This will lead to scattered showers and
storms, primarily across our Florida counties where instability and
moisture are more abundant. Strong gusty winds are the primary
hazard of concern with this storms as high lapse rates and inverted-
V sounding profiles are expected.

Expect overnight lows generally in the mid 70s with daytime highs
generally in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The aforementioned frontal feature is expected to remain stalled
across the southeast, leading to unsettled weather through Friday.
Thus, showers and storms are expected to remain scattered, with the
highest PoPs being along the sea breeze, primarily within our
Florida counties. Once we get into this weekend upper level ridging
looks to begin building over the region. This will introduce large-
scale subsidence and inhibit convection for the eastern half of our
area. Conversely, areas along the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama
have better chances of seeing scattered showers and/or storms where
PWATs and instability looks to be higher. There`s also the chance
that the SE FL Big Bend sees some activity due to the Atlantic sea
breeze being enhanced due to the placement of the upper-level ridge.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Some models
hint at maybe a brief bout of low stratus near TLH around 10-12z,
but confidence in this is rather low. TSRA will develop near the
FL terminals this afternoon with strong gusty winds possible.
Otherwise, light west to southwest winds are expected for TLH,
ECP, and VLD with winds becoming more west to northwest for DHN
and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Mainly southwesterly winds should hold through tonight before
teetering between westerly and southwesterly afterwards. Seas will
generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being
favored west of Apalachicola. However, long-period swells will
continue through the period as a disturbance sits off northeast
Mexico. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be possible over
the waters with the highest chances east of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

High dispersions are expected across SE Alabama and SW Georgia
Tuesday as mixing heights reach near 8000 feet across these regions.
Transport winds will predominantly remain below 10 mph out of the
west/southwest on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms look likely
across the Florida Big Bend and portions of the Florida Panhandle on
Tuesday as the trailing frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary
across north Florida. Overall, outside of thunderstorm activity and
high dispersions across the aforementioned regions, there are no
fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding
concerns where slow moving storms could produce several inches of
rainfall. Otherwise, there are currently no river flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  77  97  76 /  50  10  60  20
Panama City   92  79  91  78 /  30  10  50  30
Dothan        99  75  98  74 /  20  10  40  20
Albany       100  75 100  75 /  10  10  40  20
Valdosta     100  75  99  75 /  40  20  60  20
Cross City    95  76  93  77 /  70  30  70  30
Apalachicola  89  79  89  78 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ this evening for FLZ008-010-012>019-026>029-108-112-
     114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ159-160.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Oliver