208
FXUS62 KTAE 180107
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
907 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Showers and even a few thunderstorms continue at this hour in the
Florida panhandle and western Big Bend. Extended rain chances
both in time and location to account for this rain and used the
latest HRRR for timing which should continue for the next few
hours possibly towards midnight ET. Also increased the cloud cover
currently and in the predawn hours when low clouds and fog are
anticipated to develop. Kept low temperatures essentially
unchanged with readings falling to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A frontal boundary currently located just inland from the Emerald
Coast will continue to lift northward this evening. Shortwave
energy aloft will act upon this boundary, within an air mass
characterized by GOES Blended Total Precipitable Water of up to
1.9" along the Emerald and Forgotten coasts. Slow eastward storm
motions and training near this boundary will lead to locally
heavy rainfall, mainly in the FL Panhandle and Western Big Bend,
where there is a marginal risk of flash flooding given the current
saturated soils. This activity will diminish after sunset with
patchy fog possible late tonight across much of the region inland
from the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. The fog should dissipate
between 9 and 10 AM ET on Wednesday.

Wednesday will feature the highest PoPs near the I-10 corridor,
and although the flash flood threat should be lower, localized
poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out. Lows tonight in the
60s to around 70 and highs on Wednesday in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper level trough begins to lift north and east Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will drag a frontal boundary through the
forecast area on Thursday with west and northwest flow expected to
prevail afterwards. We could see isolated showers along the front
on Thursday, but most activity should be fairly sparse, mostly due
to the drier mid-level air beginning to work its way into the
region. Expect temperatures to climb back to near 90 on Thursday,
especially across our Florida counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper level ridge is likely to build across the region on Friday
and into the upcoming weekend. This will usher in very dry mid and
upper level air, largely keeping conditions quiet. The quiet
conditions could last into early next week depending on how fast
moisture returns back into the forecast area. Temperatures will be
in the low 90s with the dry and sunny conditions.

Looking further into next week, concerns will then turn to the
tropics. Guidance has begun to jump on to the idea of potential
tropical development next week. However, it should be noted that
any development in this scenario next week would likely be slow,
and if anything does develop any potential paths or intensity are
very uncertain at this time. Folks should continue to monitor
conditions over the next 7 to 14 days, but we caution against
focusing on any particular model run or outcome as things will
likely change over the next week or two. At this time, it can`t
hurt to check in on your tropical plan and prep kit.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Leftover afternoon convection is drifting from west to east while
exhibiting a slow weakening trend, which is reflected in the near
term models and the TAFs. Not much in the way of lightning so
used a combination of VCSH and tempo SHRA for the next few hours
at all but ABY. Heading into the overnight, patchy to areas of fog
will develop north of the coast and north of ECP, encapsulating
the other sites. Have TLH down to MVFR with the other sites at
IFR/LIFR. Most probable timing is 10-14Z. Conditions will become
VFR after 14Z with PROB30 for convection at TLH/VLD after 18Z.
Coverage of afternoon convection should be less than days past.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week
with rain chances decreasing after Wednesday. East and
northeasterly flow is reestablished by the weekend and this could
lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas, especially during
the overnight hours. Elevated northeast flow likely continues into
early next week with possible advisory level conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Chances of wetting rains on Wednesday highest near the I-10
corridor, with dry weather returning Thursday. The main fire weather
concern will be pockets of low dispersion on Wednesday in Southeast
AL, the FL Panhandle, and west of the Flint River in GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Dry conditions are likely after today with little to rain expected
from Thursday to early next week. No hydrological concerns are
anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  87  70  89 /  20  50   0  10
Panama City   72  86  73  88 /  30  30   0   0
Dothan        68  87  68  88 /  10  20   0   0
Albany        67  87  68  87 /  10  20   0   0
Valdosta      69  86  70  88 /  20  50   0  10
Cross City    70  89  72  89 /  10  30   0  20
Apalachicola  73  84  73  86 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs