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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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780 FXUS62 KTAE 131807 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 207 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1107 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 No major changes to today`s forecast were required. The 12Z KTAE sounding highlights an unseasonably moist airmass with a Precipitable Water of 1.94". This value exceeds the 90th percentile, per SPC sounding climatology. However, minimal forcing for convection is expected today. The best chances for showers/thunderstorms remain along the Emerald Coast where the afternoon seabreeze and synoptic NE flow converge. Next in line is the Nature Coast/SE Big Bend area. Any storms that develop are likely to be slow-moving and capable of gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Outflow boundaries may serve as a focus for additional cell development for locations farther inland. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Upper level trough axis will be over the region this afternoon as it slowly slides southeast with an upper level ridge axis expected to be building south and east into tonight. At the surface, an area of disturbed weather to our south will move off the Florida coast as an area of weak low pressure slowly develops. East and northeasterly flow around this weak disturbance, along with relatively dry low to mid-level air, should keep rain chances a little lower this afternoon. The best chances will likely be confined to our Panhandle counties and the southeast Big Bend where seabreeze convergence with the northeasterly low-level flow will be maximized and POPs will be around 40 to 50%. Coverage will be more isolated across central portions of the Big- Bend near Tallahassee and across our AL/GA counties where deep- layer moisture and the lack of any significant low-level convergence will keep rain chances lower. Enjoy the last day of "cooler" temperatures, with highs in the mid 90s, because as we move into weekend conditions will warm up and dry out. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The main story will be the heat for Friday and into the weekend. As the upper level trough elongates and lifts northeast, an upper level ridge will build into the southeast. With relatively light winds, absent the seabreeze along the coast, expect mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures as the ridge and limited deep- layer moisture supress most, if not all, shower and storm development outside a few small showers along the seabreeze. The limited deep-layer moisture should at least put a cap on the heat indices and concerns for widespread dangerous heat, but with heat indices around 100 to 105 across the area under sunny skies, it won`t be a pleasant summer day and folks outside this weekend should be very vigilant about staying hydrated and aware of the signs of heat stress and heat exhaustion. Weekend temperatures could be the hottest of the summer season so far. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Heat continues into Sunday as the upper level ridge slowly slides east into the early part of the week. As the ridge slides east, low-level flow will become easterly and southeasterly into next week. This should bring an increase in low-level moisture and a return to more summer-like rain chances, but the eventual position of the upper level ridge will determine if better tropical moisture can move in. The best rain chances in this pattern will likely be across the Gulf and into our Florida counties with lower, but not zero, rain chances across our AL/GA counties. With low-level moisture beginning a comeback on Sunday, and the ridge still having an influence on the sensible weather, Sunday could be the hottest day of the forecast period heat index wise as air temperatures remain fairly similar to Saturday. It`s possible we`ll need heat advisories across much of the area on Sunday depending on how forecasts evolve. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Cumulus field has developed over SE AL and most of the FL counties with CU advancing towards SW GA from the northeast. The best chances for showers and storms, some of which have already started, will be over the western FL Panhandle. Added VCTS to TLH TAF, but kept it out DHN since confidence was lower over SE AL. Showers and storms that do develop, should taper off after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1107 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting northerly winds 10 kts or less with seas around 2 ft and a dominant period of 7 seconds. From CWF Synopsis...Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of maritime convection with dominant wave periods of 6 to 7 seconds. By Monday, cautionary easterly flow develops and likely increases to or near advisory levels later next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Mostly dry conditions are expected the next few days, especially over the weekend. The only chances for isolated/scattered showers and storms will be across the Panhandle and the southeast Big Bend this afternoon and possibly again on Friday. Dispersions will be on the higher end the next few days with dry and hot conditions. Mixing heights will be well above 7,000 ft in the peak of afternoon heating over the upcoming weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Mostly dry conditions are expected through the next 4 days with only isolated/scattered showers and storms today and on Friday. Rainfall amounts will not likely bring riverine issues but any stalled storms, especially in urban environments, could bring localized flooding. Little to no rain is expected over the weekend and a more summerlike pattern sets up through next week as better low-level moisture returns but rainfall amounts will not bring any additional issues. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 97 74 99 / 10 10 0 20 Panama City 75 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 20 Dothan 73 97 74 99 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 70 97 73 100 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 70 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 20 Cross City 72 96 73 97 / 30 40 20 40 Apalachicola 76 89 78 90 / 20 20 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...KR MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs