476
FXUS62 KTBW 051256
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
856 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure north of the Bahamas continues to ridge west over
Florida keeping us in a predominant easterly flow. The morning
visible satellite imagery is showing mostly clear skies this
morning. It`s a muggy morning out today with the latest surface
observations showing temps in the mid to upper 70`s and dew points
in the low to mid 70`s. The 12Z morning sounding is also showing a
slight uptick in moisture from 12 hours ago with a PWAT of 1.68
inches. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible later
this evening with sea breeze collisions, with the highest chances
over the interior counties. High temperatures will top out in the
low to mid 90`s. Made some changes to POPs for today and tonight to
better align with latest guidance. No other changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 853 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. I don`t believe SHRA
and TSRA will be widespread today, but can`t rule out a storm or
two, so will cover this with PROB30 and TEMPO groups between 21-01Z
later this evening. Light winds expected this morning, then turning
onshore this afternoon remaining less than 10 knots, then becoming
light and variable once again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure north of the Bahamas is expected to start shifting
east later today into tonight. Predominant easterly winds become
onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Showers and storms should
develop over the land this afternoon/evening, drifting into the Gulf
during the late evening and early overnight hours. A weak frontal
boundary approaches the Gulf waters on Thursday, which will shift
winds to the west over the weekend. As a result, showers could
develop along the coast early and push inland during the afternoon.
Winds will remain less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  79  93  79 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  95  77  95  77 /  20  20  60  20
GIF  97  75  98  75 /  30  30  60  20
SRQ  93  78  93  78 /  10  10  50  20
BKV  97  71  95  72 /  20  20  40  20
SPG  93  82  92  81 /  10  10  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery