282
FXUS62 KTBW 050551
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
151 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected at least through midday across terminals.
Then, a few storms could develop as the sea breeze moves inland
therefore PROB30s were added after 17Z, but most of the activity
should develop inland and be push back towards coastal TAF sites
after around 20Z. The highest chances are for areas inland as well
as along and south of the I-4, so TEMPO groups were added to
PGD/FMY/RSW. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
where storms develop. East to southeasterly winds prevail before
shifting west in the afternoon. Convection should push offshore
during the evening hours with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Current forecast on track requiring no changes. Some interior
convection toward SWFL continues to fire with an overall slow
trend toward coastal areas, while Nature Coast convection
currently remains limited to Levy/Citrus counties. The sea breeze
is evident via radar and satellite situated generally along or
near the I-75 corridor and has yet to fire any appreciable
convection across WCFL, however the E coast sea breeze may trigger
some activity over the next few hours as it arrives and intersects
it, therefore expect the chance of a shower or storm to linger
through at least sunset before eventually winding down for the
evening across the area.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  93  80 /  40  30  40  20
FMY  95  76  94  77 /  50  50  60  30
GIF  96  75  97  75 /  60  20  60  20
SRQ  94  77  93  78 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  96  70  94  72 /  40  20  40  20
SPG  93  81  92  82 /  40  30  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Close