303
FXUS62 KTBW 071146
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
746 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Significant changes appear likely over the course of the next
week. In the short term, hot temperatures will continue today and
into the weekend away from the coast. A weak U/L disturbance will
push across the area today enhancing lift...however, increasing
southwest to west boundary layer flow will push the west coast
sea breeze boundary inland early in the day. This will create
low chance pops along the coastal counties during the morning and
early afternoon hours, with the boundary pushing inland during
the afternoon hours and a slight increase in areal coverage and a
bit higher rain chances over the interior.

An U/L ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will build over the Florida
peninsula during the weekend. Increasing heights and associated large
scale subsidence will cause temperatures to climb a few degrees,
with max temps over the interior likely in the upper 90s each day.

The U/L ridge will weaken early next week and a significant
pattern change will take place. A broad mid-level trough will
develop over the central Gulf of Mexico with deep south to
southwest flow developing out of the western Caribbean. This will
pull the first real wedge of tropical moisture north across the
forecast area by midweek. Still much to play out in the details,
but PCPW values will likely climb above 2 inches...and over 2 1/2
inches isn`t out of the question. There will be the potential for
locally heavy rain Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday across
portions of west central and southwest Florida with the risk for
localized flooding. Will need to monitor evolution of this
scenario over the next several days as a significant widespread
multi-day heavy rain event is possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late morning
into early afternoon at coastal terminals before this activity
spreads inland towards interior areas later in the day. Thus, some
brief flight restrictions can`t be ruled out if this activity
impacts any terminals but otherwise VFR conditions are expected
throughout the day with westerly winds around 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
Weak gradient expected over the coastal waters through the weekend
with the main hazard an isolated thunderstorm which could produce
locally gusty winds and rough seas. Increasing south/southwest
flow next week may create SCEC conditions on portions of the
waters...with SCA conditions possible mid week. Widespread showers
and scattered thunderstorms will also be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected over the next several days as
relative humidity values will remain above critical values.
However, the persistent hot temperatures and overall dry
conditions will create a risk for wildfire activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  80  94  80 /  40  20  30  10
FMY  94  78  95  79 /  50  20  50  40
GIF  96  76  97  77 /  50  20  30  20
SRQ  93  78  93  78 /  40  20  30  20
BKV  94  73  97  72 /  50  10  20  10
SPG  92  82  92  83 /  40  20  30  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
AVIATION...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard