419
FXUS62 KTBW 260823
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
423 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure will continue to ridge across the area at the
surface and aloft through Monday with generally westerly flow in
place and hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will warm into the
lower 90s at the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland. A stray
shower or two will be possible inland in the late afternoon/early
evening each day and some patchy fog will be possible around
sunrise in the mornings. Low afternoon humidities will keep heat
index values close to actual temperatures.

A weak cold front then settles in across the area Tuesday and
washes out, with lingering moisture across the area and upper
energy streaming across the area allowing for some scattered
afternoon showers and storms each day with heating. Temperatures
remain hot with lower to mid 90s and some pockets of upper 90s
each day, and lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Light N/NW winds this morning in most locations will increase to
around 10-13kts from the W/SW in the late morning and afternoon.
Winds shift to the NW in the early evening, then become light
again after sunset. VFR generally expected through the period, but
some patchy fog may be possible mainly at KLAL 09-13z this
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure ridging to the south of the area will keep westerly
winds in place across the waters through Monday. A front will then
settle across the area Tuesday, with moisture and energy lingering
across the area through the end of the period, bringing some
scattered showers and storms across the waters. Winds remain
W/NW through Wednesday, then shift to the N/NE for Thursday. No
headlines expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue through Monday with some
critical humidities possible inland, but winds will be below 15mph
so no headlines anticipated. Scattered showers and storms
possible then Tuesday as a front washes out across the area and
then rain chances continue inland each afternoon through the rest
of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  92  78 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  95  75  94  76 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  92  73  92  77 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  95  68  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  92  79  90  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming