Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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956 FXUS62 KTBW 251125 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 725 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 723 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions with light and variable winds expected early this morning, then increasing WNW around 8-13 knots by mid morning and continuing through the afternoon. Will hold off mentioning any weather at all terminals at this time as it appears most rain chances will remain over the interior east of the terminals. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure ridges across the area at the surface and aloft through the extended weekend. A little upper energy is expected to move over the state later today and enhance the chances for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland. The rest of the weekend an isolated late afternoon/evening storm will be possible inland, but conditions will mostly be hot. Highs are expected in the lower 90s near the coast to the mid to pockets of upper 90s inland. Be sure to continue practicing heat safety measures like ensuring you remain hydrated, try to stay out of the afternoon sun, wear light colored clothing and sunscreen, etc. Tuesday and Wednesday a weak front will move across the area and allow for some scattered showers and storms, with highest chances in the afternoon each day. The GFS is keeping the upper energy lingering across the area with scattered storms again possible into Thursday and Friday afternoons before drier air filters in. Temperatures will remain warm with this, with low to mid 90s in the afternoon and lows in the upper 60s north to the mid to upper 70s coastal central and south. && .MARINE... Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure will remain in place across the waters with the ridge axis shifting south of the area for the extended weekend and putting much of the waters in a more westerly flow. A weak front will move through the area then for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few showers and storms possible with it. No headlines are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 75 91 76 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 94 74 93 74 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 95 73 97 73 / 30 10 10 0 SRQ 91 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 94 67 94 67 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 90 78 90 78 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close