Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
855 FXXX10 KWNP 081231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 08-Jun 10 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 08-Jun 10 2024 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 00-03UT 4.33 3.00 1.67 03-06UT 3.33 3.33 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 09-12UT 2.67 2.00 3.33 12-15UT 3.67 2.33 4.67 (G1) 15-18UT 2.67 2.00 6.00 (G2) 18-21UT 2.67 2.00 6.00 (G2) 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 5.00 (G1) Rationale: G2 (Moderate) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on Jun 10 due to CME effects. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 08-Jun 10 2024 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 S1 or greater 99% 50% 10% Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected on Jun 08. A chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected on Jun 09, decreasing to a slight chance on Jun 10. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 08 2024 0149 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 08-Jun 10 2024 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 R1-R2 75% 75% 50% R3 or greater 25% 25% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on Jun 08-09, with a chance for R3 (Strong) events. A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events exists on 10 Jun.