Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
337 FXXX10 KWNP 100031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 10-Jun 12 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 10-Jun 12 2024 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 00-03UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 2.00 03-06UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 2.33 06-09UT 2.33 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 3.33 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 6.00 (G2) 2.33 2.00 18-21UT 6.00 (G2) 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 1.67 2.00 Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Jun, with G1 periods likely extending into 11 Jun, due to the anticipated passage of a CME from 08 Jun. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2024 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 S1 or greater 75% 25% 10% Rationale: S1 (Minor) levels are expected on 10 Jun. There is a chance for S1 levels on 11 Jun and a slight chance for S1 levels on 12 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 09 2024 0701 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2024 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 R1-R2 75% 75% 50% R3 or greater 25% 25% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, on 10-11 Jun. There is a chance for R1-R2 events and a slight chance for R3 or greater events on 12 Jun.