Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
920 FXXX10 KWNP 091231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 09-Jun 11 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 09-Jun 11 2024 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 1.00 1.33 4.67 (G1) 06-09UT 1.33 2.33 3.67 09-12UT 1.00 3.33 3.33 12-15UT 2.33 4.67 (G1) 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 6.00 (G2) 2.33 18-21UT 2.00 6.00 (G2) 2.33 21-00UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 1.67 Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Jun, with periods of G1 (Minor) storms likely on 11 Jun, due to the anticipated arrival and passage of the 07 Jun CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2024 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 S1 or greater 99% 50% 10% Rationale: S1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 09 Jun, with a chance for S1 levels on 10 Jun. There is a slight chance for S1 levels on 11 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 09 2024 0701 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2024 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 R1-R2 75% 75% 50% R3 or greater 25% 25% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 09-11 Jun.