868
FXUS65 KTFX 302038
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
238 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Aside from a few light showers this afternoon across the plains,
seasonably warm and dry conditions are expected through early
Saturday before some light rain moves into Southwestern Montana. A
more significant weather system will bring wind and rain to the
area Monday night through Tuesday. Warmer and drier weather is
expected to close out next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Seasonable temperatures through the weekend with a few rain
showers across the Southwest Saturday night and Sunday morning

-Breezy and wet weather is possible early to mid next week, with
a return to warm and dry weather likely for the end of the week

Through SaturdayCool temperatures and scattered rain showers
continue today as broad upper level troughing continues to move
over the area today.While shower activity is expected to be most
prevalent east of a Cut Bank to Great Falls line this afternoon
and evening and mostly over the plains, we will see a few showers
develop over some of the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana
this afternoon. For the most part, expect these showers to not be
of much consequence, with showers only putting down a few
hundredths of an inch here and there, with just an isolated
lightning strike or two.

As this trough moves east on Friday, expect temperatures to be
slightly warmer with most locations reaching 5-10 degrees warmer
than they have today. Mostly sunny skies will also be the rule,
with some fair weather cumulus developing in the afternoon.
Temperatures will rise again on Saturday, with low to mid 70s at
lower elevations even as some clouds begin to build into the area.
In addition, a few rain showers will work their way into
Southwestern Montana, though any rain that falls from these
showers will be on the light side.

Sunday through next Thursday Sunday will be a mostly quiet and
seasonably mild day across the area, save for a few leftover rain
showers across Southwestern Montana that should move out for the
afternoon. Monday will start out relatively quiet, though clouds
will quickly build in as our next impactful weather system begins
to push in for midweek, with rain working its way into
Southwestern Montana by the end of the day Monday. Further north
across the Plains, winds will begin to strengthen as a lee trough
develops, with the strongest winds being in the usual wind prone
areas along the Rocky Mountain Front. While rain will more or less
clear the area Monday night and Tuesday morning (save for a few
leftover showers across the plains), winds will strongest early
Tuesday morning through early Tuesday afternoon with widespread
strong winds over 40-50 mph possible (>50% probability) along the
Rocky Mountain Front and along the north slopes of the Little Belt
Mountains.

For Wednesday and beyond, ensembles generally agree that upper
level ridging will begin to build in across the area, which will
lead to mostly warm and dry weather to close out next week. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...

30/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
3018/3118 TAF period; however, rain showers near or over the KCTB
and KHVR terminals may bring brief periods of MVFR/low-VFR CIGS.
Otherwise, unstable northwest flow combined with surface heating will
lead to broken CIGS of between 5000 to 9000 feet through the
daylight hours, with decreasing cloud cover and improving CIGS this
evening with the loss of sunlight. Breezy and gusty west to
northwest winds will continue across the plains and valleys of
Central and North Central Montana (i.e. KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, and
KHLN terminals), with frequent wind gusts of between 25-35kts
through 00-03z Friday. Mountains will be obscured through this
evening, with improving mountain visibility this evening. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  38  67  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  37  64  37  70 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  39  70  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  33  67  38  75 /   0   0   0  10
WYS  30  61  31  68 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  33  68  39  74 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  41  67  40  76 /  20  10   0   0
LWT  34  63  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls