742
FXUS65 KTFX 012007
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
207 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A few light rain showers and general thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the early evening hours across Southwest and Central
Montana. Near normal temperatures continue through this weekend into
early next week with our next weather system moving into the region
Monday bringing chances of precipitation Monday and Tuesday and
strong winds through Wednesday. Above normal temperatures and drier
conditions return for later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through tomorrow night...Near normal afternoon
temperatures, with the exception of mountainous terrain as
temperatures continue to be below normal with highs in the 50s,
through the weekend with rain shower and a few non-severe
thunderstorms this evening from Southwest Montana into Central
Montana from a Bozeman to Lewistown line. Primary concerns today
with any developed thunderstorms are lightning, gusty winds up to 40
mph, and a heavy downpour. A drier day is in store for tomorrow
morning before our next impactful weather system arrives for
tomorrow night into Monday.

Monday through Wednesday...Upper level troughing is favored to move
into the state from the Pacific Northwest and dig southward across
Southwest and Central Montana bringing unsettled weather conditions.
Strong winds and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are in
store for Monday afternoon and evening for along the Rocky
Mountain Front, Central, and Southwest Montana.

Probabilities of Wind Gusts greater than 55 mph from latest
data from National Blend of Models 4.2 (NBM):

Browning - 98%
Cut Bank - 96%
Great Falls - 60%
Havre - 40%

Upper level troughing is forecasted to move out of our region
Tuesday night with upper level ridging building in for Wednesday
with dry and windy conditions, especially along the Rocky Mountain
Front Wednesday morning into the afternoon. We decided to extend the
High Wind Watch to include portions of Cascade, Judith Basin, Fergus
counties and along the Hi-Line through Wednesday afternoon. We also
extended the timing for along the Rocky Mountain Front as mountain
wave activity could occur. Winding down of strong winds reaching
high wind criteria along the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent
Hi-Plains region down into Central Montana, is likely (greater than
75 percent) Wednesday afternoon and evening as probabilities are
still between 25 and 50 percent in a few higher terrain locations
while elsewhere is below 25 percent.

Thursday into next weekend...The Climate Prediction Center updated 6
to 10 day outlook for our region is favoring above normal
temperatures (80%) and leaning below normal precipitation (45%) for
this timeframe. Ensemble member guidance is currently in favor of
upper level ridging to begin Thursday and continue through Saturday
where uncertainty grows on whether upper level ridging continues
or upper level troughing begins to move in for beyond Sunday.
While upper level ridging is favored, a quick upper level
shortwave can`t be ruled out to bring some afternoon shower
activity into Friday and Saturday. Webb

&&

.AVIATION...

01/18Z TAF Period

An area of scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will
move through the region in a southwest to northeast fashion, mostly
between 02/00Z to 02/08Z. Lower VFR conditions and brief gusty winds
will be the primary concerns for this time period. Otherwise, expect
increasing mid- and higher level clouds this afternoon into tonight
and west to northwesterly breezes on Sunday in the wake of the
passing shortwave disturbance. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  72  55  71 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  43  68  50  65 /  10  10  20  30
HLN  49  75  55  69 /  30  20  10  80
BZN  44  73  51  68 /  40  30  10  90
WYS  39  64  45  56 /  30  30  10  90
DLN  44  72  53  66 /  30  10  10  80
HVR  49  75  55  74 /  10  10  10  40
LWT  44  69  50  69 /  50  20  10  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below
5000ft-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill
County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls