032
FXUS63 KTOP 201110
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
610 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms may be possible over northern areas mainly late tonight. If
storms do occur then damaging winds would be the primary hazard
along with hail as a secondary hazard.

- Severe weather may still be possible into late Tuesday afternoon
into the early evening hours as a weak cold front works through the
area. If storms do form across the area, expect the primary hazards
to be large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024


Currently, the upper air pattern remains mostly steady state with
quasi-zonal to southwest flow in place across the central Plains. A
pair of upper lows are evident over Canada. One over the Hudson Bay
region with the other over central Canada with the main trough axis
extending into the northern Rockies and through northern California.
Subtropical flow remains well south into the northern Mexico and
southern Plains regions. Across the local area, the storm system
from last night continues to lift northeast of the region. A few
trailing showers remain north of I-70 into northeastern Kansas. South
of the area into northeastern Oklahoma, an MCS is evident as it
works east.

Today, temperatures should remain cooler than past days with clouds
in place much of the day as an EML caps the atmosphere. Little in
the way of obvious forcing looks to be in place today, so storms
don`t appear to be a high concern or probability through the day.
The primary focus for storms later tonight would be any outflow from
an MCS that is forecast to work through central and northern
Nebraska tonight after storms congeal into a line coming off the
High Plains into this evening. Although the probability looks low
for now across the northern areas to be impacted by any passing
nocturnal storms, can`t completely rule it out either. Expect
damaging wind to the be the primary hazards if storms do occur again
mainly into northern areas overnight tonight.

Tuesday still looks like the best chance for any storms to form
along the cold front by mid to late afternoon. Forcing other that
the front as a low level focus appears best displaced well to the
northeast of the area with height falls into the upper MS Valley
region. Could still see a few isolated storms breach the cap by late
afternoon before they quickly exit the area. A hail and wind threat
appear to be most in play with winds along the front veered more to
the southwest.

A surface ridge builds into the area for mid to late week bringing
cooler and dryer air to the region. Chances for showers and storms
may even hold through much of the Memorial Day weekend until late
Sunday when a more significant shortwave ejects from the central
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

No significant change from the prior forecast, VFR conditions
anticipated with lowest cloud deck at or above FL040. Uncertain
about afternoon or evening convection for this cycle.
Probability is still too low to mention at this time. Winds
should remain generally around 10kts with a southerly component
through the period. Late tonight, LLWS may develop as the LLJ
increases across the area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake