232
FXUS63 KTOP 170840
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
340 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather builds in for the weekend with
  temperatures approaching 90 degrees.

- Severe storms will be possible late Sunday, and again on
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

- Small thunderstorm potential Saturday afternoon and evening

- Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday late afternoon and evening

Diminishing cloud cover and light winds in a moist boundary layer
may give rise to patchy mainly south of I-335 early this morning.
The remainder of the day brings lots of sun with slightly warmer
temperatures on modest low-level warm air advection.

Models trending toward better chances for convective development
along a weak cold front in the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. Modest capping looks to remain in place with a weak upper
ridge building so any activity looks to be fairly isolated. Went
ahead with a mention along the boundary for these periods. Shear
will be weak though MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg could produce brief
severe weather.

Thunderstorm activity could form in northwest Kansas Saturday evening
and impact northwestern local areas into the night, though severe
weather is not anticipated as instability weakens with time. More
concern comes in the late afternoon and likely more into the evening
as a shortwave moves northeast into western Kansas with a dryline
sharpening under it. Differences in capping, dryline location and
convergence along it, and how much early day convection could have
on the environment bring questions of how this potential event will
transpire, but NBM thunderstorm chances will be maintained. Wind
fields in the mid and upper levels aren`t terribly impressive but
CAPE again around 2000 J/kg and at least a moderate nocturnal low-
level jet bring severe weather potential.

Precipitation chances next week are not very clear with multiple
shortwave moves moving through in mainly zonal flow aloft. The
initial wave remains on track to move northeast through the region
Tuesday, with a cold front swinging through in the midday. This may
relegate the greater severe weather potential to the east. A second
shortwave not far behind brings at least small precip chances
Tuesday night, though much will depend on how far south the
effective front will be. Timing of the next wave varies but small
NBM PoPs Thursday seen justified.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some minor restrictions in BR still seem reasonable around 12Z,
mainly at TOP and FOE, with little cloud and very light winds
and crossover temperatures likely being approached or met.
Modest south winds around 10 knots should develop at a few
thousand feet AGL which brings minor mixing potential that could
mitigate IFR or lower restrictions. VFR conditions should
dominate by 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage