Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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800 FXUS63 KTOP 142011 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms approach the area from the west tonight. Best chances for storms will be across northern KS and a few storms could be strong to severe. -Widely scattered storms could impact the area again tomorrow afternoon. Damaging wind appears to the be main threat. -Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Early this afternoon, the air mass over the area has become increasingly buoyant with a steady increase in temps and dew points into midday. A lingering, but fairly diffuse, surface boundary from yesterday`s system appears to remain positioned just south of the forecast area. For this afternoon, have a low chance (10-15%) for isolated storms south of I-70 due to some isentropic ascent occurring near the boundary. Looking at a wider view across the CONUS, showers and storms were ongoing across much of the High Plains well ahead of a mid-level wave near the Four Corners. More robust convection is expected to develop over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas this evening as the mid-level wave advances northeast. Thunderstorm activity will move east into central Kansas late this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings around north-central Kansas show around 2500 J/kg of elevated instability ahead of the storms, but weak deep layer shear. Better forcing will also remain just west and north of the area, closer to the trough axis that will remain west of the area. Most CAMs agree on storms moving northeast across north-central and far northern Kansas overnight with decreasing chances with further southward extent. The main threat from storms will be damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms could occur again tomorrow afternoon as the mid-level trough axis moves into central KS. Stronger low level southerly flow will push the lingering surface boundary to the north as a warm front. A similar environment will be in place, with ample amounts of instability but weaker directional and speed shear through the mid levels. Forcing, however, should be a little stronger with the approach of the upper trough axis. Am thinking that widely scattered storms could develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours. Strong winds will again be the main concern, especially with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Instability and forcing will wane during the overnight hours which should decrease the coverage and intensity of any storms that developed previously. High heat and humidity are expected to continue late this weekend and early next week with strong southerly flow dominating our low level pattern. Aloft, a more amplified pattern will evolve across the country as an expansive ridge builds over the eastern US and troughing occurs out west. A strong cold front looks to approach the area late Tuesday as a wave in the southwestern mid-level flow moves into southern Canada. Convergence along the front looks strong enough to warrant an increase in POPs, especially in north-central and northern KS, even with a lack of better upper level support. A drop in temps could occur if that front is able to move southward into east-central KS. Otherwise, typical summer like heat is expected as we approach the solstice. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR expected this period. The main challenge is thunderstorm chances tonight. Have gone with VCTS for a brief time at KMHK where confidence is a little higher in storm coverage. Better chances, however, will be north of terminals. Light east winds this afternoon will veer to the south and increase Saturday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey