590
FXUS63 KTOP 160504
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Staying warm throughout the week.

- Isolated morning storms north-central KS next two days, better
rain chances area-wide over the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A rather stagnant pattern has developed over the CONUS the past
couple days, courtesy of a rex block over the eastern US. Here, an
upper low related to the remnants of Francine has become stuck under
strong ridging to the north. This block has kept a longwave trough
over the West Coast, with embedded shortwaves lifting quickly
northward before moving too much onto the Plains. In between, we
have been under a shortwave ridge axis. Beneath this ridge axis in
an area of mid-level convergence towards central KS, we did see a
few isolated elevated showers and weak thunderstorms develop this
morning. They quickly weakened by late morning as the LLJ weakened
and convergence lessened. This pattern will repeat itself each of
the next couple mornings, with additional showers and weak
thunderstorms across north-central Kansas. After any morning
convection dies off though, the afternoons will stay on the warm
side with highs approaching 90 through Tuesday.

By midweek the large-scale pattern won`t look too different than it
does now. The most notable change though will be a stronger western
shortwave trough that will lift northeast toward the northern Plains
Wednesday. Stronger isentropic ascent ahead of this feature should
result in an area of showers and storms developing across western
Kansas and shifting east. Still uncertain as to how much this holds
together as it moves into the forecast area, but nevertheless PoPs
do increase for the Wed/Thu timeframe. Even heading into the week,
the main trough hangs back over the southwestern CONUS, with low
pressure in the lee of the Rockies keeping unsettled conditions to
our west. So precipitation chances linger through late week, but
confidence is low for now, especially the farther east you go.
Southerly flow combined with the ridging aloft keeps
temperatures on the warm side for mid-September. Eventually the
trough will eject east across the Plains sometime next weekend.
Whenever that does occur will be our best chance for widespread
rainfall, but still a lot of questions on the overall trough
evolution by that point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Models keep the mid level isentropic lift to the west and north
of the terminals. So the main concern is whether any ground fog
develops. RAP forecast soundings keep some wind in the boundary
layer with cross over temps below the forecast lows.
Additionally some think high clouds may move in from the west.
So will keep a VFR forecast and monitor trends through the
morning. If fog was to form, it would be brief and around
sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters