654
FXUS64 KTSA 180540
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The current forecast remains on track with no significant changes
required at this time. Patchy fog may once again develop over
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight into
tomorrow morning. While no widespread significant visibility
reductions are expected, fog may occasionally become locally
dense across NW AR & SE OK... especially in the typically favored
valleys. Otherwise, low temperatures in the 60s are forecast
areawide with light/ calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Still a considerable amount of stratocu covering eastern OK and
western AR this afternoon. Expectation remains for this to break
up and dissipate tonight with patchy fog possible in the valley
areas of northwest AR and possibly southeast OK. Any significant
reductions likely to remain quite localized however. High plains
convection forced by the ejecting trough through the Central
Rockies should remain well to our northwest through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Main story for the next few days will be the return of much above
normal temperatures as the Southern Plains remain under the ridge
portion of a blocking pattern. Data continues to support daytime
highs warming well into the 90s by Thursday/Friday, and parts of
northeast OK approaching 100 both days. Does not appear dew
points will increase too significantly, thus at this time do not
expect a need for heat advisories.

A second upper trough now approaching the west coast will follow
a slightly more southern trajectory than the current system,
though the brunt of forcing still should remain north. Still this
could offer up some relief from the heat by the weekend as a
frontal boundary is potentially forced through the area by the
beginning of next week. Timing is still uncertain with relevant
features, and the forecast will continue to reflect the NBM with
low-end chance of thunderstorms beginning late Saturday and
continuing into next week, with temperatures trending more toward
seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Scattered to broken high clouds associated with ongoing convection
over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to Western Kansas will continue
to spread eastward into the CWA overnight tonight. At this
time...the greater precip potential should remain west and
northwest of Northeast Oklahoma. Also overnight...patchy areas of
reduced visibility are possible and will add a tempo group to
KFYV. During the day Wednesday...scattered diurnal cumulus clouds
are again forecast to develop over the CWA and then dissipate
Wednesday evening. There may be period as clouds develop that MVFR
ceilings are possible before lifting to around 5kft for the
afternoon hours. Mostly clear to scattered high clouds are then
forecast Wednesday evening/night. Winds through the period should
vary between east and south. VFR conditions are forecast for the
majority of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  75  99 /   0   0  10   0
FSM   69  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   71  97  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   68  98  70 100 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   66  91  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   65  92  70  94 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   69  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   68  94  72  97 /   0   0  10  10
F10   71  96  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20