Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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534 FXUS64 KTSA 200130 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 830 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The main updates made earlier this evening have been to adjust PoPs during the late afternoon and early evening (thru 03z), raising them to the north and west of Tulsa where storms have been concentrated thru the late afternoon and into the evening. A supercell tracked across Pawnee county earlier and produced reports of 70+ mph winds, wind damage and golfball size hail. Overall storm intensity trend has been downward over the past half hour or so with the loss of daytime heating, so the bulk of the severe threat is likely done. The 03z-06z forecast of lower PoPs and farther south and east placement is trending well with radar and will leave that alone. Lacy && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Persistent ongoing corridor of elevated convection across SE KS is expected to remain north and east of the local forecast area, while new storm development across far western AR marks the location of the sfc boundary that extends through north central OK. Convective temps will likely be met within the weak convergence zone with scattered storms developing over the next couple of hours and spreading into northeast OK this evening. Locally damaging outflow winds and brief instances of large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. The window for severe potential will become to close after sunset and the severe risk is likely over by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The weak remnant sfc boundary will be aligned more east/west and remain near the northern periphery of the local forecast area Friday into Saturday. This zone will maintain at least low storm chances daily however guidance remains consistent in keeping the overall coverage very low. Otherwise, the continued heat will be the primary weather impact through Saturday with near record high temps expected on Friday. Dewpoints have stubbornly overachieved today despite a lack of recent rains and if this trend remains in the forecast then heat advisories may be posted. Sunday evening through early Monday will mark the most likely time for the cold front passage and associated high chances of more widespread rains. Unfortunately, widespread meaningful rains do not appear likely as forecast amounts remain rather light for most locations, however any rainfall will be welcome. Noticeably cooler temps for early next week with a few days falling below seasonal normals. Rain chances return by mid week with temperatures moderating to nearer mid September normals. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Ongoing scattered storms should remain north of the I-44 corridor through the next couple of hours before dissipating. Did include a TEMPO group for BVO for a thunderstorm or two through 03z, though confidence of direct impact to the terminal is not high. Forecast confidence is even lower for storms surviving and impacting TUL and RVS. Thus, left out any mention of TS from the TAFs for now. Will amend TAFs if necessary. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR is expected to prevail at all terminals through the next 24 hours, with BKN mid/high level clouds through the period and light-moderate (10 knots or less) S/SW winds through the daytime Friday. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 75 99 77 98 / 50 10 10 10 FSM 73 98 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 MLC 74 99 74 97 / 10 10 0 0 BVO 70 100 73 99 / 50 10 20 10 FYV 72 95 72 93 / 10 20 20 20 BYV 72 95 73 92 / 10 20 20 30 MKO 74 97 75 95 / 10 10 10 10 MIO 72 97 74 95 / 30 10 20 20 F10 74 99 74 97 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 71 98 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...30 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...67