Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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696 FXUS64 KTSA 241532 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1032 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas of dense fog across eastern Oklahoma this morning have dissipated, giving way to a pleasant early Fall day today for most of the area. Highs this afternoon are forecast to range from the mid to upper 70s across the north, where mid and upper level cloudiness will increase through the afternoon hours, to the mid 80s across the south under mostly clear conditions. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase later this afternoon and into the evening as a mid level disturbance drops southeast across the region. Most precip still looks to hold off until around sunset. A low potential exist for a few stronger storms with some damaging wind gusts, mainly along and west of Highway 75 this evening with any thunderstorms that develop. Current forecast looks to still be on track, with just some minor adjustments to hourly grids to account for the latest trends. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening, with the greatest coverage of precipitation and best chance of storms remaining across the western and southern parts of the forecast area. Precipitation will be ending from north to south during the overnight hours. A closed upper low is forecast to become cut off just to our east late this week into early next week. Moisture wrapping around this low will bring rain chances back to the area late Thursday and especially Friday, with the greatest chances in the eastern part of the forecast area. Rain chances will then linger into the weekend across at least far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through much of the forecast period as the upper low sits and spins just to our east. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas of fog will continue through 14-15Z for eastern OK. Visibility will reduce to 1/4 mile at times but will be highly variable. In northwest and west- central AR no fog has been observed, instead, low ceilings of around 1-2 kft will continue through mid morning. During the late morning to early afternoon ceilings will redevelop around 15 kft, lowering to 6-8 kft during the late afternoon to early evening. Areas of showers are expected to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible for southeast OK. Winds will be light through the period, becoming northerly by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 57 81 56 / 20 30 0 0 FSM 83 61 82 59 / 10 40 10 0 MLC 84 58 82 54 / 10 60 0 0 BVO 78 51 81 51 / 10 20 0 0 FYV 78 52 78 50 / 10 30 10 0 BYV 77 54 78 54 / 10 20 10 0 MKO 81 56 81 55 / 10 40 0 0 MIO 76 52 78 51 / 10 20 0 0 F10 82 56 81 53 / 10 40 0 0 HHW 87 62 81 56 / 0 70 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...06