068
FXUS64 KTSA 260512
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A few isolated thunderstorms continue this evening, however
stronger and more widespread convection has mainly pushed
west of area. Still some uncertainty regarding storm evolution
tonight into Wednesday morning. Atmosphere remains very unstable
and there are some indications in the CAMS that storms may fester
overnight across portions of northeast Oklahoma ahead of
anticipated MCS, which should move into the area from the north
late tonight into Wednesday morning. Update will be sent to
modestly increase PoPs across NE OK tonight with better precip
coverage east of Highway 75 Wednesday morning ahead of main
convective line. Update out shortly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to be ongoing across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday morning with
additional shower/storm development possible near any remnant
outflow boundaries. Will keep the heat advisory for Wednesday
as is for now. However, an upgrade to a excessive heat warning
may be needed across portions of eastern Oklahoma Wednesday
afternoon.

Heat will continue to be the main concern through the remainder of the
forecast with temperatures around the century mark across portions of
the area most afternoons with heat headlines likely. However, there will
be a low chances of showers/storms Saturday into Sunday as a weak frontal
boundary tries to move into the region. This may keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

OVC-BKN VFR cigs will prevail through most of the period before
scattering out later in the period. Best chances for TSRA will
around 12z as a complex of storms moves into NW AR at that time.
This activity will translate further south and likely impact KFSM
around 14z. Will include tempo groups with MVFR vsbys in thunder
at the aforementioned sites during that period. TSRA chances
appear limited across the OK sites, so will not include any
mention with this issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  74  94  80 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   96  76  95  77 /  50  10  10   0
MLC   98  74  95  77 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   97  69  93  77 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   92  69  93  72 /  60  10  10   0
BYV   91  68  90  72 /  60  10  10  10
MKO   96  73  93  77 /  30  10  10   0
MIO   93  69  90  75 /  40  10  20  10
F10   99  73  93  77 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   96  74  94  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23