051
FXUS63 KDDC 191000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Widespread snow and blowing snow will create difficult to
 dangerous travel along and north of US 50 Wednesday morning.
 Blizzard warnings have been expanded to US 50. Snow will end
 rapidly west to east Wednesday afternoon.

-Intense to damaging northwest winds will continue Wednesday,
 with gusts to near 75 mph.

-A hard freeze in the teens and 20s is expected Thursday
 morning.

-Critical wildfire danger is expected to return to southwest
 zones as soon as Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Impressively dynamic cyclone was over SW KS at midnight, with
surface observations showing the strong 986 mb surface cyclone
near Great Bend at 1 am. Radar and satellite imagery have shown
the deformation blossoming over western zones to southeast
Colorado, and this is the beginning of the expected high impact
wind/snow blizzard event this morning. Tremendous lightning with
convection in the deformation zone speaks to the dynamics we are
dealing with, and short term models and CAMs have caught onto
this, and track guidance has also shown a noticeable southward
correction since the 00z guidance. Expanded the blizzard warning
south to include the US 50 corridor with an update at 10 pm
last night, in an attempt to increase messaging before the 10 pm
news cycle. The midlevel cyclone will continue to intensify as
it crosses Kansas this morning, with a 538 dm low near Salina at
7 am. The associated intense deformation band of heavy wet snow
will overspread much of western Kansas through sunrise, with
modeled QPF implying intense snowfall rates. Not all of the QPF
that is being forecast will convert to measurable snow on the
ground. Total snow accumulations is not the key message. Rather,
intense snowfall rates will combine with wind gusts of 65-75
mph to produce full blizzard conditions at times, reducing
visibility to near zero. Travel will be difficult to dangerous
as the snow falls this morning into the midday hours; travel
should be restricted to only emergencies through noon. Did
increase snow amounts to match QPF fields, and using a 7:1
sloppy wet ratio, came up with a 2-5 inch snow forecast through
midday. Much of this will stick to elevated surfaces such as
trees and powerlines, increasing the concern for electrical
infrastructure damage and resultant power outages. Already
getting spotter reports of power flashes/outages around Garden
City as of 2 am. Wind grids through today follow the 95%ile of
the NBM, and am quite concerned about damaging northwest winds
through Wednesday. Gusts near 85 mph have already been reported
across Baca county Colorado early this morning. Increased wind
gusts to near 75 in the ongoing high wind warning through
Wednesday. Also lowered temperatures significantly, stuck in the
40s, this afternoon given cold air advection and melting snow.
Snow will end rapidly from west to east this afternoon.

A rapidly clearing sky and diminishing winds, along with any
snow cover, will result in strong radiational cooling and a hard
freeze tonight through sunrise Thursday. Followed the coldest
guidance, well down into the 20s, with teens expected across the
northwest zones.

Rapid improvements Thursday, courtesy of broad ridging quickly
expanding over the plains, and the return of SWly downslope
winds of 15-25 mph. Any snow will melt quickly Thursday. In
fact, grids support near critical wildfire danger especially
southwest of Dodge City Thursday afternoon, and a red flag
warning may be required.

Next shortwave progged to pass early Friday has really weakened
on the latest guidance, with no impacts or precipitation. With
only a few degrees of cooling Friday, temperatures will rebound
back into the lower 70s Saturday afternoon. Quick look at the
extended shows an extended period of very quiet and dry PNA
pattern with ridging over the Rockies and gentle NWly flow over
Kansas. Precipitation will be very scarce to absent across SW KS
through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Extremely poor/dangerous aviation weather will begin this TAF
period 10-12z Wed, with widespread snow and intense northwest
winds. Snow will end quickly from west to east during the 15-18z
time range, ending at HYS around 18z Wed. Northwest winds will
remain intense much of daylight Wednesday, averaging 30-40 kts
with gusts of 50-60 kts through 18z. After 18z Wed, NW winds
will begin to slowly diminish, with a much more rapid decrease
of winds expected around 00z Thu. Excellent flying weather will
return to all airports after 00z Thu, with VFR/SKC returning and
light NW winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Intense northwest winds will continue Wednesday, averaging 30 to 40
mph with gusts as high as 75 mph. Winds will diminish rapidly after
sunset this evening, becoming light and variable Thursday morning.
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will return Thursday afternoon,
along with minimum relative humidity of 10-20%. Red flag warning
issuance will likely be required Thursday afternoon, especially
far southwest counties near Elkhart.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>079.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today for
KSZ061-074-080-081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner