841
FXUS63 KLBF 191125
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong storm system will cross the region today. Blizzard
  conditions across Garfield, Wheeler, Custer and Frontier
  County until 15Z. Otherwise high winds will affect much of the
  forecast area today. Northerly winds of 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts up to 60 mph are likely with this system and high wind
  warnings remain in effect.

- A series of weak disturbances and cold fronts will bring
  elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Thursday
  through Saturday. The threat for any measureable
  precipitation is low.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

At 08Z, deep surface low pressure near 985mb was centered near
Topeka Kansas. The H5 low was centered near Great Bend Kansas. A
well defined deformation band was located across western Kansas,
south central Nebraska into northeast Nebraska and western
Iowa. Convective cells with lightning was indicated from north
central Kansas into south central Nebraska, east central
Nebraska and west central Iowa. Snow has ended across the
northwest Sandhills south through Thedford and Ogallala. The
main deformation band is bringing heavy snow and low visibility
less than a quarter mile at Cambridge to a mile or less at
Lexington and Broken Bow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The main weather concern through 10 am CDT will be the ongoing
snow across the far southeastern Counties, including Frontier,
Custer, Loup and Garfield County. Blizzard conditions are
currently developing across these Counties to persist through
13Z, then ending by 15Z. The latest mesoscale models, including
the HRRR and 3km NAM indicated the most intense deformation with
the heaviest snow to extend across south central into eastern
Nebraska, where blizzard conditions will be the most widespread
and intense. With snow ending in the next few hours across the
remainder of southwest Nebraska, not including Frontier County,
a High Wind Warning is now in effect for the remainder of today.
This also includes the central Sandhills and much of the eastern
half of north central Nebraska. As the Blizzard Warning ends
for the southeastern Counties, a High Wind Warning will
continue for the remainder of the day. Northerly winds of 30 to
40 mph with gusts to 60 mph can be expected. The Imperial
Airport reported a gust to 62 mph and the Broken Bow Airport 60
mph so far during the overnight.

For today, cloudy skies this morning will see afternoon
clearing from northwest to southeast. Highs will reach the low
40s most areas.

Clear skies tonight, as surface high pressure builds in.
Northwest winds will diminish quickly through sunset, then light
west to northwest overnight. It will be a cold night, with lows
15 to 20.

Thursday, a progressive ridge aloft will flatten out as an
upstream shortwave trough moves into Wyoming and Colorado. This
will bring a noticeable warmup with highs 55 to around 60.
Southwest winds increase to 15 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, with
afternoon humidity as low as 15 to 25 percent. The lowest
humidity will be across the southeast panhandle into central
portions of north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The shortwave trough will cross the region late Thursday night
through Friday, bringing a cold front through. Gusty northwest
winds on Friday 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Elevated to
near critical fire conditions with humidity as low as 15 to 25
percent across the west. Could see a few light showers across
northern Nebraska. Another warmup into the 60s Saturday, ahead
of the next shortwave trough and approaching cold front.
Elevated to near critical fire conditions once again as humidity
falls to around 20 percent, with gusty southwest winds to 25 to
30 mph. Another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday,
though it looks to be light and sparse in coverage. Highs Sunday
in the low to mid 50s. Weak upper ridging in northwest flow
Monday and Tuesday with highs warming into the 60s. In the
northwest flow aloft, some cloudiness and showers are possible,
though the current forecast is dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions prevail this morning across western and north
central Nebraska as a powerful low pressure system continues
tracking eastward. Ceilings will improve to VFR throughout the
morning, and remain VFR once clear. Strong, northerly wind gusts
will persist across the region through this evening, with peak gusts
in excess of 40 knots at the surface. By evening, winds begin to
calm and are expected to become more westerly around midnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ005-006-008>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.
Blizzard Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ028-029-
038-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Richie