940
FXUS63 KTOP 191145
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level storm system will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow
  to north central KS with blizzard conditions as north winds
  gust up to 60 MPH. Northeast and central KS will see 1 to 2
  inches of snow with north wind gusts up to 60 MPH. The
  remainder of the area will see north wind gusts of 50 to 60
  MPH through the day.

- Pleasant weather to end the week and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Early this morning an amplified upper low was located across
southwest KS, with an upper trough axis extending southward across
TX into northern Mexico. A 5Z surface hand analysis showed a deep
886mb low was located just east of Great Bend KS, with a warm front
extending ENE across northeast KS into southern IA. A strong sfc
cold front was pushing southward across western KS. The rain had
changed to snow across northwest KS into central NE. Temperatures
ahead of a pacific front/dryline were still in the upper 60s to
lower 70s across central and east central KS.

Today:

The upper low across southwest KS will move northeast across the CWA
during the morning hours, then northeast to the tristate border of
IA/IL/MO by 00Z THU. The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models have very similar
forecast tracks. The GFS may be about 30 miles farther northwest.

As the upper low reaches northeast KS around 18Z, the deformation
zone on the northwest and west edge of the upper low will move
northeast across north central KS from 12Z through 20Z. Within
the deformation zone, strong frontogenesis and CI/CSI will
cause a 3 to 4 hour period of heavy snowfall, with snowfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. At this time I have the heavier
snowfall tracking from northwest Ottawa county, northeast
across southwest Cloud into western Washington counties. This
area may see 2 to 4 inches (far northwest Republic County could
see 4 to 6 inches) of snow as the rain changes to snow around 7
AM, and the heavier snow lasting through 18Z. Due to the strong
pressure gradient on the west side of the deep surface/850mb
low, north winds will increase by the mid morning hours to 30 to
40 MPH with gusts of 50 to 60 MPH. This will cause considerable
blowing and drifting of snow, creating blizzard conditions.
Areas within the winter weather advisory will receive 1 to 2
inches of snow with considerable blowing and drifting snow,
producing blizzard like conditions. The snow to rain line will
gradually push east across the northeast and east central KS
during the late morning and early afternoon hours. East central
KS, may only see a mix of rain and snow, especially southeast of
I-35 during the afternoon hours. After 20Z the deformation zone
will lift northeast across IA and the heavy snow should end but
the wrap around moisture will continue to produce light snow,
which will end from west to east during the mid and late
afternoon hours. Areas east of a Council Grove to Hiawatha line
will see less than an inch and probably only a dusting across
east central KS. If the upper low wobbles a bit more to the
east, then northeast, the heavier snowfall could move a bit
farther southeast. But at this time the area under the blizzard
warning looks good with the current forecast.

Most areas will see strong winds behind the cold front with 30 to 40
MPH winds and gusts of 50 to 65 MPH. The far southeast counties
will probably only see wind gusts of 45 to 55 MPH, so I kept
this area under the wind advisory Today.

The strong CAA behind the front will have temperatures falling
through the 30s across north central KS, and temperatures will
fall through the 40s across east central KS with upper 30s by late
afternoon..

Tonight:

The strong winds will gradually diminish through the night. The next
shift may need to issue a wind advisory for the eastern counties of
the CWA during the evening hours as winds may stay at or above
30 MPH with stronger gusts through most of the evening hours.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s
across north central KS with mid to upper 20s across northeast
and east central KS.

Thursday:

A broad surface ridge will slide southeast across the CWA during the
morning hours, then shift southeast across the lower MS River Valley
Thursday night. Highs will rebound into the lower to mid 50s across
areas without snow. Highs may only reach the mid to upper 40s across
the far northwest counties with some snow cover.

Thursday night through Wednesday:

The upper flow will become more zonal with low amplitude H5 troughs
passing east across the Plains. One H5 trough may provide enough
ascent for light rain late Saturday into early Sunday morning but
temperatures will remain well above freezing Saturday night for only
rain.

The southern stream H5 trough passing across the central Plains
on Sunday will phase with a northern stream H5 trough digging
southeast from central Canada into the Great Lake States. The
upper flow across the Plains will become northwesterly early
next week. The stronger CAA will remain east of the CWA, so
highs on Monday will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect
Highs to warm into the mid to upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Expect windy conditions behind a cold front moving through KMHK,
which will move through KTOP and KFOE After 14Z. Behind the
front winds will switch to the northwest and increase through
the morning hours into the afternoon to 30 to 40 MPH with gusts
of 50 to 60 MPH. Behind the front a stratus deck of clouds will
move across the terminals with MFVR ceilings between 1100-1600
feet. There will also be rain and snow beginning at the
terminals during the mid morning hours of Wednesday. MHK could
turn to all snow for about 4 hours during the late morning and
early afternoon hours which will reduce visibilities to 1 mile
with some blowing snow as well. The strong winds will slowly
diminish to 20 to 30 KTS with gusts of 30 to 40 KTS early this
evening. Stratus ceilings will also raise above 3500 feet to VFR
criteria this evening. After 9Z THU, the northwest winds should
diminish under 12 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055.
Blizzard Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ020-KSZ034.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan