Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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432 FXUS64 KAMA 031152 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 652 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Another kink in the upper level trough will descend southward into our eastern zones today. Afterwards, our active pattern takes a bit of a break as heights start to rise on Tuesday and a ridge in the upper levels begins to develop. The rest of tonight... A southeastward propagating MCS is exiting southwest Kansas and entering into portions of northwest Oklahoma, but the western flank of the system looks to also impact the far northeastern counties of our CWA. The potential for this system to be severe is still on the table tonight, as the low level jet is still quite strong in the area. Our primary hazard of concern with this complex would be strong winds, but heavy rainfall cannot be excluded. Meanwhile further to the south, fog has settled in and is slowly expanding across the southeastern Texas Panhandle. The fog appears to be generally patchy and dense in some areas. In very isolated locations, this may affect travel on the roads. By sunrise conditions area expected to improve. Later on today, higher dewpoints are expected to hold in the eastern Panhandles. Even up to 70 degrees according to some of the guidance. Given the time of year, high CAPE values will be present. However, the forcing mechanism for thunderstorms will be quite weak. Our surface low is forecast to be on top of the Panhandles this afternoon, and a dryline will not be active until the evening and overnight hours were the gradient will finally sharpen. Thunderstorms should still be able to hit convective temperatures and pulse up during peak diurnal heating, but they could still run into some inhibition. Especially in areas were clouds are slower to erode throughout the morning. If thunderstorms are able to overcome these limiting factors, (as indicated by some of the latest 00Z and 06Z CAMs suggest), then they could quickly become severe. Modest 0-6 km bulk shear between 30-40 kts and steep 8-9 C/km lapse rates should allow for discrete storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out particularly in the southeast Texas Panhandle where better low level wind shear and lower LCL heights should be present. This activity would initiate in the late afternoon and quickly move east. By the night time hours, the initial storms will have moved into western Oklahoma but additional development cannot be ruled out at this time as the dryline will be retreating west and favorable conditions are in place for elevated storms. Tuesday... As the ridge prepares to build back in, a quieter forecast is expected. With 90`s area wide and mostly sunny skies. Guidance still diverges somewhat on how hot we will become, and if 100`s should be introduced to areas other than the Palo Duro Canyon. Therefore, we have left NBM temperatures as is until a better consensus is met. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 For Wednesday through Thursday afternoon, generally dry weather is foreseen as upper level ridging prevails over the area. Above normal temperatures are anticipated across the region most periods from Wednesday through Sunday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to return to the OK and TX Panhandles Thursday night through Sunday as medium range deterministic models and corresponding ensembles continue to suggest that some semblance of northwest flow aloft may develop. NBM temperatures and pops look reasonable based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were included in all periods of the long term forecast. 02 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 LIFR to MVFR conditions exist at the AMA terminal, as low clouds and dense fog begin to erode with the sunrise. A TEMPO group has been given to address these semi-lingering conditions through 16Z, and skies should even clear out before then. GUY has some prevailing low clouds this morning due last night`s passing thunderstorms, but the coverage is not enough to warrant LIFR or MVFR headlines at this time. For the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites with light surface winds. Thunderstorms are still not expected to impact the terminals this evening. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 98 62 96 64 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 92 63 91 61 / 10 10 10 0 Boise City OK 92 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 99 65 97 63 / 10 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 97 61 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 96 61 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 95 61 97 65 / 10 10 0 10 Dalhart TX 94 58 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 92 60 90 59 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 98 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 93 64 94 64 / 10 10 0 10 Pampa TX 94 63 94 64 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 94 63 97 66 / 20 20 0 10 Wellington TX 97 63 99 67 / 10 10 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...55