Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162345 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, surface winds will diminish by sunset this
evening and then become north at generally less than 10 knots
at the terminal sites as a weak cold front moves across the
region. Winds will quickly become southeast and gusty Saturday
afternoon. Periods of high level clouds are also expected through
late Saturday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 429 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/

Very few changes have been made to the forecast.  Wind and fire
weather concerns remain the focus, with Sunday and Sunday night
expected to be very windy.

A weak cold front will move in from the northeast this evening and
overnight, with light northeast and east winds in its wake.

Lee trof develops on Saturday across eastern New Mexico, with
southeast and south winds resuming and increasing in the
afternoon as post-frontal surface ridge is displaced eastward.

Powerful shortwave trof moves into western sections Sunday
afternoon, followed by closed mid-level low Sunday evening, which
is progged to move across northern sections.  Lee trof takes on
dryline characteristics during the afternoon as it moves east
across the Panhandles and into Oklahoma.  Dryline expected to be
east of forecast area before adequate moisture for thunderstorms
to develop Sunday afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across northern sections Sunday evening and Sunday night
as polar cold front and dynamics with closed mid-level low
traverse the area.  Due to strength of dynamics and tight
gradients, very windy conditions are expected Sunday, Sunday night
and into Monday.  A wind advisory or high wind warning may be
needed during this time frame.

Weather takes a breather Tuesday and Wednesday.  Moderate north
winds on Tuesday return to south on Wednesday.  Next lee trof
sets up and deepens on Thursday with south and southwest winds
increasing.  03


Critical fire weather conditions will continue into this evening
across all of the Panhandles until winds diminish.  A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect through 9 PM CDT.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the western
half of the Panhandles on Saturday as dry south and southwest
winds resume.

Critical to possibly extremely critical fire weather conditions
are likely to develop on Sunday and Sunday night.  Southwest
winds will increase following the passage of the dryline.  A
Pacific cold front will soon follow, with strong southwest and
west winds continuing.  A polar front will then pass Sunday
evening, accompanied by strong northwest winds.  A Fire Weather
Watch will be in effect for all of the Panhandles Sunday and
Sunday night.

Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions are expected to
continue into Monday across the most of the Combined Panhandles.

No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Elevated Fire Weather conditions may develop again on Thursday
across the Panhandles.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


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