Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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329 FXUS65 KBOU 282052 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 252 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms mainly over the Front Range and Palmer Divide continue until early evening. Storms may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph. - Higher afternoon thunderstorm potential on Wednesday, when a few severe storms will be possible, mainly for the rural plains. - Slightly cooler Thursday behind a cold front, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms each day through at least Saturday. - Drier/warmer conditions favored as we near early next week, but details become more murky Sunday onwards. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Currently, a few showers and storms hover along the southern foothills and Palmer Divide which can be seen on reflectivity. Southwest flow aloft remains weak on ACARS soundings. Storms continue to pulse up and quickly end; this pattern will likely continue given the marginal amount of instability and shear this evening. A robust storm or two could produce small hail but majority of showers and storms should remain non-severe. Models and soundings indicate large DCAPE values near 1000-1200 J/kg which could lead to storms producing wind gusts up to 45 mph through tonight. Low temperatures increase for the lower elevations sitting a few degrees above normal; normal low temperatures are expected for the high country. Southwesterly flow increases aloft as the next shortwave trough arrives to northeast Colorado early Wednesday morning. Diurnal thunderstorms and showers are possible once more Wednesday afternoon across the region. CAMs favor a dryline initializing slightly east of the I-25 corridor. This set-up combined with the favorable conditions, bulk shear 30-35kts and MU CAPE between 700- 1000 J/kg, could lead to a few severe storms along the eastern plains starting late Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across the plains Wednesday evening and be east of the area by midnight. Then a cold front will move south across the area towards sunrise Thursday morning. High temperatures will be cooler Thursday with readings in to the upper 70s to around 80F over northeast Colorado. Moisture decreases as well for Thursday behind the front. In addition to less moisture and instability, soundings show the airmass will be capped as well. Better moisture and instability will reside over southeast Colorado where scattered thunderstorms are expected. The northern extent for showers and storms Thursday looks to be around or slightly south of I-70. However, the GFS shows it will be a little warmer than the other models show, with showers and storms overcoming any capping. Thus, will keep a slight chance for showers and storms over the northern parts of the area just in case the GFS is on to something. For Friday and the weekend, west to southwest flow aloft will prevail. Temperatures will slowly climb each day reaching the upper 80s by Sunday. Better instability and moisture are expected to be in place Friday for a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Models are hinting at a short wave trough moving across Colorado on Saturday. Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms if this holds true. However, with this system several days away, timing and track of this wave will likely change. Models generally agree Sunday will be drier with subsidence and drying behind the trough. Upper level ridging begins to build over the Central and Southern Rockies early next week. This is expected to bring warm and dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1154 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon mainly between 22Z-01Z. Conditions are favorable for thunderstorms arriving to KAPA but there is a low chance of an isolated storm for KBJC and KDEN. Therefore, keeping VCSH for KBJC and KDEN. Winds will shift from northeast to southeast for KAPA and KDEN; For KBJC, showers could shift winds southwest. By 02Z, showers and storms should exit all terminals. Winds remain between 10-15kts for all sites until 10Z as a low level jet sets up along the CO/Kansas border. Drainage winds are possible by 11-12Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...Meier AVIATION...AD