Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 110302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
802 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018

Issued at 758 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018

Skies have cleared across the area however some higher level
clouds may affect srn areas of the CWA overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018

Gusty northerly winds had developed across the plains behind
today`s cold front. Isolated showers had also developed thanks to
the combination of daytime heating, cold advection aloft, and
general destabilization. However, low levels are so dry there`s
been more virga than precipitation reaching the ground.  In the
mountains, snow showers have continued this afternoon with a
couple spots picking up another inch or two with spotty snow
covered roads in locations that have seen those heavier showers.
The showers will be decreasing and coming to an end in all areas
early this evening as airmass continues to dry and stabilize from
the northwest.

Clear skies and dry conditions will prevail overnight, and along
with light winds in all but the eastern plains we expect good
radiational cooling, so we lowered temps in valley locations a few
more degrees.

Sunday will feature lighter winds as high pressure builds across
the Northern and Central High Plains. There are some high clouds
advertised to spread east, but that will be difficult as they run
into the developing upper level ridge over Colorado. For now,
expect mostly sunny skies to prevail with temperatures near or
just below normal levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 104 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018

A weak shortwave will pass on Sunday night, working on a fairly
dry air mass. There could be some light mountain showers, and some
clouds may linger east of the mountains on Monday as the wave
aloft moves over a weak cool surge over the plains. This should be
just enough to keep temperatures from rising on Monday. For
Tuesday and Wednesday a big dry ridge will move over the Rockies
with warming temperatures and generally light winds. Meanwhile, a
strong trough will develop near the west coast.

There`s a lot of variety in the models on the evolution of the
pattern by the weekend. Pretty good consensus on a longwave trough
hanging west of us and shortwaves in a northerly jet stream over
the northern U.S or the Canadian border area. But individual
shortwaves and the linkage between these two features vary
considerably from run to run and between the ensembles. Last
night`s GFS that had a compact but vigorous low that would have
made a Saturday snow for us looks to be quite an outlier, though
there are maybe a quarter of the runs that bring a strong
shortwave over a front on either Saturday or Sunday with cooling
and some precip. Most confidence is in a warm and windy west to
southwest flow on Thursday and Friday ahead of whatever shortwaves
will kick out of the trough, or perhaps with a dry lead shortwave.
Runs which have a stronger northern stream shortwave bring cooling
in on Friday, otherwise the cooling will be delayed another day.
While some of the runs try to couple the southern shortwaves with
cold air moving in from the north, most of them have more
disorganized systems moving over. Chance PoPs in the mountains and
slight chances on the plains from our model blend look alright at
this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 758 PM MST Sat Mar 10 2018

Winds have become more ely and will become more sely in the next
hour or so and then light sly by midnight.




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...RPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.