Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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329
FXUS65 KBOU 282052
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
252 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms mainly over the Front Range and Palmer Divide
  continue until early evening. Storms may produce small hail and
  wind gusts up to 45 mph.

- Higher afternoon thunderstorm potential on Wednesday, when a few
  severe storms will be possible, mainly for the rural plains.

- Slightly cooler Thursday behind a cold front, with isolated to
  scattered afternoon showers/storms each day through at least
  Saturday.

- Drier/warmer conditions favored as we near early next week, but
  details become more murky Sunday onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Currently, a few showers and storms hover along the southern
foothills and Palmer Divide which can be seen on reflectivity.
Southwest flow aloft remains weak on ACARS soundings. Storms
continue to pulse up and quickly end; this pattern will likely
continue given the marginal amount of instability and shear this
evening. A robust storm or two could produce small hail but
majority of showers and storms should remain non-severe. Models
and soundings indicate large DCAPE values near 1000-1200 J/kg
which could lead to storms producing wind gusts up to 45 mph
through tonight. Low temperatures increase for the lower
elevations sitting a few degrees above normal; normal low
temperatures are expected for the high country. Southwesterly
flow increases aloft as the next shortwave trough arrives to
northeast Colorado early Wednesday morning.

Diurnal thunderstorms and showers are possible once more
Wednesday afternoon across the region. CAMs favor a dryline
initializing slightly east of the I-25 corridor. This set-up
combined with the favorable conditions, bulk shear 30-35kts and
MU CAPE between 700- 1000 J/kg, could lead to a few severe storms
along the eastern plains starting late Wednesday afternoon through
late Wednesday evening.


&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward across the
plains Wednesday evening and be east of the area by midnight. Then
a cold front will move south across the area towards sunrise
Thursday morning. High temperatures will be cooler Thursday with
readings in to the upper 70s to around 80F over northeast
Colorado. Moisture decreases as well for Thursday behind the
front. In addition to less moisture and instability, soundings
show the airmass will be capped as well. Better moisture and
instability will reside over southeast Colorado where scattered
thunderstorms are expected. The northern extent for showers and
storms Thursday looks to be around or slightly south of I-70.
However, the GFS shows it will be a little warmer than the other
models show, with showers and storms overcoming any capping. Thus,
will keep a slight chance for showers and storms over the
northern parts of the area just in case the GFS is on to
something.

For Friday and the weekend, west to southwest flow aloft will
prevail. Temperatures will slowly climb each day reaching the
upper 80s by Sunday. Better instability and moisture are expected
to be in place Friday for a round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Models are hinting at a short wave trough moving
across Colorado on Saturday. Expect an increase in showers and
thunderstorms if this holds true. However, with this system
several days away, timing and track of this wave will likely
change. Models generally agree Sunday will be drier with
subsidence and drying behind the trough.

Upper level ridging begins to build over the Central and Southern
Rockies early next week. This is expected to bring warm and dry
conditions for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Scattered showers
and storms are possible this afternoon mainly between 22Z-01Z.
Conditions are favorable for thunderstorms arriving to KAPA but
there is a low chance of an isolated storm for KBJC and KDEN.
Therefore, keeping VCSH for KBJC and KDEN. Winds will shift from
northeast to southeast for KAPA and KDEN; For KBJC, showers could
shift winds southwest. By 02Z, showers and storms should exit all
terminals. Winds remain between 10-15kts for all sites until 10Z
as a low level jet sets up along the CO/Kansas border. Drainage
winds are possible by 11-12Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...AD