789
FXUS63 KEAX 272327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated shower/thunderstorm chances across far NE MO. Chances
  decrease after sunset.

- Quiet weather conditions and near seasonal temperatures
  expected today through Wednesday

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return mid-week into the
  weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Further subtle shortwaves are moving through SE IA and far NE MO
which may trigger some thunderstorms. Thunderstorms chances
decrease as the sun sets with the more favorable convective
environment moving eastward. Severe chances look marginal;
however, a strong storm with gusty winds and hail is possible.

Previous Update Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Fairly strong shortwave trough is moving southeast across IA
early this afternoon. Forcing associated with this shortwave is
leading to more numerous showers and storms across northern MO.
Instability will remain relatively weak with MLCAPE values
around 500 J/kg. Effective shear is strong though so there may
be some small hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. The
threat of severe weather remains low given the weak instability.
Given the increased coverage of precipitation, have added or
increased PoPs to northern and northeastern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows a trough to the north of our
region over MN moving southeast. For the southern portions of our
area, there is a branch of the upper level jet curving into eastern
OH. Westerly upper level flow indicates a zonal pattern aloft with
longwave ridging over western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure
has developed to our west and will continue to move east resulting
in quiet weather for the next few days. Near seasonal high
temperatures are expected through Wednesday ranging from the mid
70s to low 80s as that upper level ridge moves into the area.

Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, upper level
troughing pushes further east from western CONUS behind the ridging
over the area. The trough will extend down into the Four Corners
region with the low center over the northern MT/Canada border. The
low is expected to deepen as the jet max rounds the trough axis and
becomes more negatively-titled. In the mid levels, the troughing
reflects down with a shortwave embedded within the flow further east
over eastern KS on the backside of the ridge. In the lower levels,
this shortwave is expected to provide lift for a decent amount of
moisture highlighted by 700mb RH values around 90%. At the surface,
winds shift to the south in western MO increasing instability with
return-flow from the Gulf. As this shortwave passes, there will be a
potential for late evening/overnight showers and storms Thursday
into Friday. With CAPE values around 1200 J/kg and bulk shear values
nearing 40 knots, there may be a chance for some strong to severe
storms. However, at this time they are expected to be isolated in
nature.

As a result of the aforementioned mid/upper level troughing, a
surface low will develop early Friday morning over eastern KS and
begins to push northeast. Winds out ahead of the low will shift to
the south slowly increasing instability over our area. Friday
afternoon, an 850mb jet can be seen intensifying over the region
with wind speeds as high as 50 knots. This will help to increase
moisture, instability and shear leading to chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Despite decent bulk shear values (~40 knots)
thunderstorms are not expected to be severe at this time due to a
lack of instability reflected in weak CAPE values. PWAT values
exceeding 1.5 inches suggest the potential for heavy rainfall which
in turn spur minor flooding concerns.

Chances for additional showers and storms persist through the
weekend with the passage of multiple shortwaves. Steady southerly
winds will result in above seasonal temperatures to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions continue through the period. Gusty winds
dissipate with sunset. Overnight lows approach dew point
temperatures leading to some fog potential; however, winds are
expected to be strong enough to curtail fog development at this
time. Winds remain NW tomorrow with diurnally driven gusts and
CU expected through the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB/Pesel
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel