Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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743 FXUS63 KGRB 220816 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 316 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms possible at times today and Thursday, mainly across northern and central Wisconsin. - Rivers over central Wisconsin may reach bankfull or even briefly surpass flood stage on Thursday. - Better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Thursday A cold front and associated thunderstorms have pushed east of the area early this morning. In their wake, some light scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across the area later this morning and into this afternoon as a mid level shortwave tracks through the area with the best chances (20-30 percent) across north- central and central Wisconsin where the best moisture will reside per model soundings. A tight pressure gradient behind the cold front is causing gusty southwest winds early this morning of 20 to 30 mph which should turn west- southwest and gust to 25 to 35 mph later this morning into the afternoon once deeper mixing is realized. Temperatures today are only expected to get into the lower 60s across the north this afternoon, with highs around 70 across central and east- central Wisconsin. Showers should dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating along with surface winds, which could still gust to 10 to 15 mph overnight. Skies should clear tonight, allowing temperatures to fall across the region. Lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 40s across the north, to the lower 50s across east- central Wisconsin. Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures are expected across the area on Thursday as a semi-stationary front develops across northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. This frontal boundary could be the focal point for light showers across the far north Thursday afternoon (20 percent chance). Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the lower 70s across the north, with upper 70s across central and east-central Wisconsin. Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Main forecast challenges to focus on convective trends Friday into Friday night and timing of additional precipitation chances late in the weekend into early next week. Another upper low/shortwave trough is forecast to swing from the northern Plains through the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes Friday into Friday night. Anticipate another round of showers and thunderstorms to rotate through northeast WI with lift from an associated cold front and forcing from the shortwave trough. Severe threat looks minimal at the moment due to marginal instability. A progressive flow across the CONUS will bring two more shortwave troughs across the Great Lakes late in the weekend into early next week. Models are having some difficulty with the exact timing/ movement of both troughs. Therefore, confidence is still rather low for timing of precipitation for the latter part of the holiday weekend. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below normal with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Line of showers and storms will exit into Lake Michigan by 2am, with lingering showers possible at times the rest of the night, especially across northern WI. Look for VFR/MVFR ceilings to drop to IFR across central and northern WI as low pressure tracks into western Ontario. The low clouds will slowly lift Wednesday morning then scatter out through the afternoon. Winds will become southwest/west overnight into Wednesday and become gusty. Gusts of 30-35 kts are expected, highest late Wednesday morning and afternoon. LLWS will end across eastern WI by 09z as the stronger winds aloft decrease. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Kallas AVIATION.......Bersch