Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 221943
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
243 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Main forecast concerns include temperatures, fog potential late
tonight into early Wednesday, and low humidities across northern
WI on Wednesday.

Lingering low stratocumulus will continue to erode late this
afternoon, and diurnal cumulus will dissipate by sunset, leaving
mostly clear skies overnight. With the surface ridge axis and
associated light winds over the region, its reasonable to assume
at least patchy fog development overnight into early Wednesday.
The fog may be locally dense in parts of central WI and near the
lakeshore. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to middle
50s.

High pressure shifts into the central Great Lakes on Wednesday
and allows winds to become south-southwest by late morning.
Weak WAA, deep mixing and abundant sunshine should allow
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to middle 80s, except
upper 60s to middle 70s lakeside, where winds will turn south-
southeast in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

After a long winter, and a fairly short spring, summer weather
will arrive in northeast Wisconsin for an extended period of time
starting on Thursday and lasting through the Memorial Day weekend.
This will mean daily highs in the 80s away from the Great Lakes,
with temperatures approaching 90 at times. The summer-like weather
will also bring the typical chances for showers and thunderstorms
as several shortwaves and weak low pressure systems track through
the western Great Lakes region.

While most of these thunderstorms are expected to be garden
variety, some could be strong or even approach severe levels
during the Memorial Day weekend, basically from Friday through
Memorial Day itself. MUCAPEs during this period will rise to 1500
to 2500 J/kg with bulk shear ranging from 15 to 30 knots. Model
soundings indicate the severe weather threat will mainly be large
hail given the CAPE profile will be fattest in the hail growth
zone with some gusty winds possible from the stronger storms.
Overall soundings show a fairly weak wind field in place which
indicates storms will be more of the pulse or multicell cluster
variety instead of a more organized severe weather threat.
Therefore pinpointing the best day or area for possible severe
weather would be difficult at best as each day could pose a threat
for an isolated severe storm.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Low clouds were eroding and shifting south at TAF issuance,
though MVFR ceilings are expected to persist for another hour
or two in parts of central and east central WI. Where skies had
cleared earlier, SCT-BKN cumulus clouds were redeveloping, but
ceilings were generally in the VFR category.

Patchy/areas of fog should redevelop later tonight into early
Wednesday, and send vsbys down to MVFR/IFR at most locations.

Winds are expected to remain light and variable through
tonight, then become southwest 5 to 10 knots on Wednesday.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Dry conditions will continue across northern WI through Wednesday,
with relative humidities dropping into the 20s again during the
afternoon. An increase in shower and thunderstorm chances are
forecast for the end of the week which could provide much needed
relief and ease the fire weather threat.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
FIRE WEATHER...Kieckbusch


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