Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 211733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Quiet weather is expected to continue, with Hudson Bay high
pressure remaining over the region. A weak upper trof will
edge east across the region today, with little impact other
than clearing skies as it departs. Satellite shows that clearing
has already progressed through parts of northwest and west central
WI, and models suggest it will reach parts of central WI early to
mid morning, and the lakeshore during the mid to late afternoon.
Clear to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated tonight into

Temperatures will be the main focus of the forecast. Weakening
north flow, increasing sunshine and deeper mixing should support
milder temperatures the next couple days, with highs in the middle
30s to lower 40s today, and upper 30s and 40s on Thursday. Lows
are a little tricky tonight, as lingering deep snowpack over
northern WI could cause temperatures to plummet. Will carry a
large range in temperatures, with lows in the single digits and
lower teens north, and upper teens to lower 20s south.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Surface high pressure over Hudson Bay and a mid level ridge moving
toward the Great Lakes should keep the area mainly dry through the
weekend. An approaching surface system and mid level short wave
are forecast to pass south of Wisconsin, bringing only an outside
chance for precipitation to a small part of central Wisconsin
Friday night. Would not be surprised if later model runs keep QPF
completely out of the area since they appear to be trending drier
than they were yesterday at this time.

The high and mid level ridge will drift to the east, allowing a
surface boundary to move into the area as a more moist southwest
mid level flow establishes itself. Rain chances arrive in northern
and central Wisconsin Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will
spread across the rest of the area Monday evening and increase to
likely over much of the forecast area late Monday night as
precipitation type changes to snow. Warming temperatures during
the day on Tuesday should change snow back to rain as the
precipitation gradually winds down/departs.

Temperatures look to be near or a little colder than normal
through the weekend, but warmer air will arrive for the early
part of the new work week.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Fairly quiet flying conditions expected through Thursday. Mid-
upper level clouds will continue to exit from west to east late
early this afternoon. Winds have turned enough out of the north
to keep any lake clouds near Lake Michigan, which will bring in
lower clouds between 3000-3500 feet into MTW through the
afternoon. Another area of mid-level clouds over Minnesota are
making very slow progress eastward, but they are encountering
drier air, so they are expected dissipate or scatter out before
reaching central and north central WI. If clouds do survive the
trip eastward, CIGS will remain VFR. Winds will remain light
through the period.



SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Bersch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.