Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 161947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
247 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Satellite showed that lake enhanced clouds were eroding over Lake
Michigan, and only thin high clouds were brushing parts of central
and east central WI. With mostly clear skies and light winds
anticipated overnight, have sided toward the colder guidance sets
for tonight`s lows. Expect single digits in the typical cold spots
of north central WI, and teens to lower 20s eleswhere.

Abundant sunshine and mixing through 925-900 mb supports highs in
the middle 40s to lower 50s on Saturday, with slightly cooler
readings near the lakeshore.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Persistent Canadian high pressure will keep the forecast area dry
until late next week. Temperatures will start off 8-12 degrees F
warmer than normal on Sunday, drop below normal for the beginning
to middle of the next work week, then return to slightly above
normal late in the week.

A back door cold front will sag south across the region on
Sunday, but is not expected to produce any precipitation. Along
and ahead of the front, temperatures will remain quite mild, with
highs in the 40s and lower 50s.

Mostly cloudy, cooler and blustery conditions are anticipated
for the first half of the work week, as a significant low
pressure system tracks well to our south. Gusty northeast winds
are expected in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas on Monday and
Tuesday. High temperatures will settle back into the 30s and
lower 40s.

Even though an upper trof/low is expected to move through the
region Tuesday night through Wednesday night, little or no
precipitation is anticipated. High pressure ridged over Ontario
will continue to feed dry air into northeast WI, so precipitation
should erode as it approaches from the west.

A low pressure system will approach from the plains on Friday or
Friday night, with developing WAA/isentropic lift, a coupled
upper jet and a short-wave trof bringing a chance of mixed
precipitation. The GFS is about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF,
so timing is uncertain at this time.

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Patchy MVFR ceilings will impact the Manitowoc vcnty early this
afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated through the
TAF period. Winds will be light and variable.



SHORT TERM.....Kieckbusch
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.