466
FXUS62 KGSP 022336
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
736 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold front drops south from the Great Lakes on Thursday with
drier weather for the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures
remain typical for the summertime season through the beginning of
next week. Daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
chances return at the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 pm: Isolated to scattered diurnally fired deeper
convection will continue to percolate along and east of upper trough
axis, mainly across the Piedmont, through the late afternoon before
ashing out aided by the progressive influx of much lower PWAT
values. Save for the possibility of shallow fog development where
today`s rainfall occurs, a mostly clear night is on tap with
Thursday morning minimums within a few deg F either side of climo.
The advection of unseasonably low PWAT values continue through
Thursday with values less than 1.4 inches progged to advect all the
way to the SE fringes of the cwfa. This will effectively cap any
deep convective chances tomorrow as Piedmont maximums climb into the
lower 90s and sfc dwpts fall below 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday: Welcome dry weather on tap for the Fourth
of July. This is thanks to an upper ridge building in across the
OH Valley and bringing subsidence atop the forecast area. Dry sfc
high pressure will slide in from the north and shunt moisture to our
south. Cannot rule out a few stray showers and isolated general tstm
or two across the mountains, but otherwise, PoPs will be under 10%
Friday aftn-eve. Highs will be slightly above normal, but dewpts
will mix out and keep heat indices in check. Lows will near normal.

Dry weather continues into Saturday, as sfc ridge axis extends
from the Mid-Atlantic to the TN Valley. Perhaps a slight uptick in
PoPs from Friday, but still largely isolated aftn to early evening
pop-up showers and a tstm or two in the mountains. Temps will also
be similar to Friday in another decent mid-summer day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday: Models in decent agreement on the eastern
CONUS upper ridge gradually weakening late in the weekend thru
the middle of next week. Shortwave energy carves out a shallow
longwave trough over the Great Lakes and allows a weak cold
front to sag south into the OH Valley Monday and gets close to
the CWFA by Wednesday. The combination of the weakening ridging
aloft and increasing moisture ahead of the front should allow
diurnally driven PoPs to gradually ramp back up to around climo
by Monday, and possibly above climo with solid mountain coverage
Tuesday. Temps will continue to be slightly above normal each day,
with some increase in humidity. This may result in heat indices
creeping back into the upper 90s to low 100s by Tuesday and
Wednesday next week across the Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. Most of any convection is well to the east, but a few
isolated showers keep popping up. Not expecting any of them to hit
the terminals and thus, kept a dry forecast. FEW/SCT VFR (050-060)
cu continue to roam across the sky, with the expectation of these
clouds dissipating shortly after sunset. Winds have toggled more
north to northwesterly with the cold front passage. Guidance
continue to hint at a deck of low stratus/fog east of KCLT and
inching relatively close to the air field around daybreak Thursday,
but enough of an influx of dry air in the atmosphere should halt
the westward expansion from getting to the terminal. Otherwise,
partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail for Thursday with quiet
weather conditions expected. Winds will gradually turn the dial
to more of a northeasterly component, but that will be the only
"tricky" part to the forecast as there will be some form of
variability.

Outlook: Drier air moving in is expected to inhibit diurnal
convection into the weekend, with at most isolated activity
expected each day. Fog and/or low stratus possible each morning
in the usual mountain valleys, as well as near lakes and rivers,
and where significant rain fell the day before.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CAC