Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
398 FXPQ50 PGUM 210759 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 559 PM ChST Sat Sep 21 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... A few showers and thunderstorms were seen over the southern Mariana waters today. Isolated showers are seen developing east of the waters which is expected to bring a few showers tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an unsettled weather pattern approaches from the southeast. && .Discussion... Maintained isolated showers and thunderstorms through tonight as some thunderstorms were observed of Guam and Guam`s waters, which is expected to become only isolated showers for Sunday. Scattered showers starting on Monday then shower potential increases a bit through the week as an unsettled weather pattern to the southeast approaches the southern Marianas. Winds are still expected to be light to gentle through the week with westerly winds possible late week as a monsoon trough develops overhead. && .Marine... Coastal buoys are reporting 3 to 4 foot combined seas. Starting Sunday, east swell will slightly build to around 4 feet and cause combined seas to be 4 to 5 ft and surf on east facing reefs to be 3 to 5 feet. && .Eastern Micronesia... The ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) has drifted farther north as weak trade-wind troughs traverse the boundary. Numerous showers are restricted to north of all three forecast points. However, scattered showers look to persist through the evening for Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro, becoming isolated as the ITCZ drifts farther north and weakens over the weekend. Other than a brief period of scattered showers for Kosrae Sunday night, the region will see much drier conditions by midnight, continuing through next week. For those in Pohnpei, Kosrae and the Marshall Islands that depend on catchment water, this may be a good time to consider conserving as much water as possible, maybe additional storage, if available. Marine conditions will remain unremarkable for the next several days, with combined seas of 2 to 3 feet at Kosrae and Pohnpei and 2 to 4 feet for Majuro. Light to gentle winds will prevail through at least Thursday next week. && .Western Micronesia... Satellite observations show isolated showers across Yap and Palau with some scattered showers near Weno. Ngaraard, Babeldaob Buoy shows seas just under 2 feet. Only minor changes were made to the forecast. Scattered showers were seen just south of Weno this evening so kept Scattered PoPs in the forecast until midnight. An uptick in showers is still expected Sunday and Sunday night for Yap and Palau as the trough near Chuuk shifts westward. A monsoonal like pattern may develop across western Micronesia towards the middle of the week and could enhance precipitation across Yap State. This monsoonal pattern looks to be less robust than the previous one with gentle to moderate winds expected this week. Forecasts should be monitored in case a trend in stronger winds occurs. Benign marine conditions expected with gentle to moderate winds and combined seas 2 to 4 feet. Seas look to dip about a foot for next week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Hong Eastern Micronesia: Kleeschulte Western Micronesia: Williams