427
FXUS63 KICT 211133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible this afternoon and evening over
  southeast Kansas.

- Continued off-and-on chances for thunderstorms Thursday
  through Sunday night.

- A period of dry weather with less humidity by Monday of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...The potential for a few severe
thunderstorms exists generally along and east of the Flint Hills, as
potent shortwave energy ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold
front/dryline combo approaches/sharpens from the west. The best
forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep
storms more isolated over southeast KS. Consequently, not everyone
will see storms. Strong instability coupled with long hodographs
will support the potential for severe weather with any storm(s) that
can form. Deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to the cold
front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less than ideal,
which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting supercells
(which would then result in storm interactions and interference).
This should cut into the potential for higher-end severe weather,
with the primary threats large hail and damaging winds. Can`t
completely rule out a tornado given the strong deep layer shear and
big CAPE, but the overall tornado threat is low.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...After a break Wednesday, model
consensus supports the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances
Thursday PM, as deep warm advection and moisture transport commence
amidst subtle upper forcing. Deep layer shear is only modest,
although increasing deep moisture/instability amidst steep lapse
rates may support an isolated to widely scattered severe weather
threat, primarily consisting of large hail and damaging winds, along
with locally heavy rain.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A strong cold front looks to blast south through the
region Thursday night-Friday, shifting Friday afternoon-evening
thunderstorm chances east-southeast of the forecast area. GFS and
ECMWF progress a shortwave into the region Saturday, with associated
northward returning moisture/instability. Model consensus keeps
Kansas primarily north of the warm front Saturday, which would tend
to keep severe weather potential more marginal and support potential
for heavy rainfall through Saturday night. A rather deep shortwave
looks to approach from the northwest on the heels of Saturday`s
system, which could spark additional thunderstorm chances for Sunday-
Sunday night, although moisture/instability may be lacking being so
close to the heels of Saturday`s departing system.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...The Sunday-early Monday system looks to
usher in a pattern change across the region through at least mid to
late next week, with dry northwest flow aloft. This should support
mostly dry weather, with lower dewpoints and seasonable to
seasonably cool temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A few hours of MVFR cigs are possible across portions of central
and south-central Kansas this morning (mainly for KSLN, KHUT,
KICT) through about 15-16Z. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail thereafter.

Winds are currently around 15 to 25 knots out of the south and
southeast. However, a cold front will be sweeping across the
region throughout the day, and winds will gradually shift to
westerly, then to northerly by this afternoon and evening. A few
storms are possible across southeast Kansas, but chances remain
low enough to omit from the KCNU TAF for now. Surface winds
will gradually decrease to around 10 knots, but will remain
northerly tonight through early Wednesday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC