255
FXUS63 KICT 081707
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1207 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances through this evening, and again off-
  and-on Thursday night through early next week.

- Warming trend through late week, with a cool down this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

PRECIPITATION:

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...Early this morning, we are watching a
couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorm complexes moving
south-southeast across southern NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO.
Given the strong cold pool, thinking this activity will gradually
propagate south into the forecast area early to mid this morning.
With a weakening low-level jet, activity should tend to weaken with
southward extent, which is already being observed on radar with
outflow outrunning the convection. Consequently, thinking this
strongest activity will be capable of 40-50 mph winds and locally
heavy rain.

For this afternoon through early evening, spotty thunderstorm
development is expected in vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary
and MCV, which *should* be somewhere generally along/south of
Highway 54. Strong instability in concert with around 20 kts of
effective deep layer shear and decent DCAPE values should support an
isolated severe thunderstorm threat, with the strongest activity
capable of downburst winds, dime size hail, and heavy rainfall. This
activity should exit south of the forecast area by early to mid-
evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...After a relatively quiet
Wednesday-Thursday, off-and-on thunderstorm chances return to the
region, as a cold front moves through and then stalls near the KS/OK
border. Weak perturbations in the upper flow continue into next week,
with an associated threat for spotty thunderstorm chances. As has
been the case the past several days, strong instability in concert
with marginal deep layer shear should produce a few strong to severe
thunderstorms each episode, along with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

A building upper ridge will support warming temperatures this week,
reaching the mid-upper 90s by late week. Thereafter, a cold front
will support a cool down this weekend back into the 80s to near 90
degrees. With deterministic and ensemble consensus keeping the upper
ridge at bay, along with periodic thunderstorm chances, there is a
low chance for a prolonged period of intense above average summer
heat the next 7-10 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. While a stray
shower or storm cannot be ruled at all sites this afternoon and
tonight, the potential is much too low for mention at this
time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF