003
ACUS11 KWNS 041724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041724
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...much of western into central Minnesota...adjacent
portions of eastern South Dakota and northwestern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041724Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may gradually
intensify and organize into a line while overspreading the region
through 2-4 PM CDT.  This is expected to be accompanied primarily by
a risk for marginally severe hail and wind, with perhaps an isolated
tornado possible.

DISCUSSION...Relatively deep surface troughing, near/just ahead of
an eastward advancing cold front, appears likely to become a focus
for gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through 19-21Z.
It appears that this will be aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent,
downstream of amplified mid-level troughing progressing across the
northern Great Plains, and destabilization associated with a narrow
corridor of deeper boundary-layer moistening.  It appears that this
moistening will contribute to CAPE increasing up to 1500+ J/kg
across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota during
the next few hours.

Some strengthening of south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow (from
30-40 kt) and shear may be ongoing to the east of the Red River
Valley.  Although low-level hodographs may be initially sizable and
clockwise curved beneath 30 kt southerly 850 mb flow across northern
into central Minnesota, model forecast soundings indicate that these
will trend more linear with the approach of the front and corridor
of increasing thunderstorm development.

Thunderstorms seem likely to consolidate into developing a line of
convection with primarily a marginal severe hail to wind threat.
However, the risk for a tornado might not be completely negligible,
mainly if a discrete storm or two can develop and be maintained
ahead of the developing line across north central Minnesota.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   49199302 47869329 46269314 44209374 43259442 42739579
            43269655 44269629 45779605 48059599 49369512 50079367
            49199302