859
ACUS11 KWNS 052314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052313
MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-060045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...portions of far northeast VA and central MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052313Z - 060045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible for another couple of
hours with small supercells near the VA/MD border. Convective
coverage should remain very isolated and a WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 2305 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of low-topped storms near the VA/MD border have taken on
transient supercell characteristics. Several reports of funnel
clouds and a brief tornado have been observed with theses storms
over the last 90 min. The environment remains broadly favorable for
convection with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, much of which is focused
below 4 km. Deep-layer shear is not supportive of longer-lived
supercells, but area VADs do show clockwise curved hodographs in the
lowest 1-2 km.  With a very moist air mass in place (low 70s F
surface dewpoints) low cloud bases and strong low-level updrafts
will allow for efficient stretching of stream-wise and ambient
vorticity with these small storms. A brief tornado or two will
remain possible for another couple of hours as these storms move
east. Storms should gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating.
Given the limited convective coverage and the relatively transient
nature of storm organization, a WW is not expected, though trends
will continue to be monitored.

..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...

LAT...LON   39647655 39657614 39557603 39377603 39187611 38947632
            38917645 38937689 38957720 38997742 39047754 39277754
            39617716 39647655