065
ACUS11 KWNS 051539
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051538
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Areas affected...parts of southeastern lower Michigan...northwestern
Ohio...northeastern and central Indiana...southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051538Z - 051815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
strengthen and organize while spreading east-northeastward across
the region accompanied by strong to, perhaps, occasionally severe
gusts.  While the overall severe threat still appears generally
marginal in nature, trends are being monitored and it might not be
out of the question that a severe weather watch could become
necessary for at least a portion of the area.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying on the leading
edge of the convectively generated cold pool which trails a compact,
but well-defined mesoscale convective vortex currently migrating
east-northeastward through northern Indiana.  This appears to be
embedded within 30+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, near
the base of negatively tilted large-scale mid-level trough forecast
to continue slowly pivoting toward the lower Great Lakes region, and
through the Ohio Valley, into this afternoon.

A seasonably moist boundary-layer, including mid 60s to near 70F
surface dew points, is destabilizing to the east and south of the
convective outflow, and, as updraft inflow becomes characterized by
increasing CAPE, there appears potential for further intensification
of this convective cluster as it approaches the western Lake Erie
vicinity.  The trailing outflow has become quasi-stationary
southwestward and westward into central Illinois, where new
thunderstorm development appears to be occurring to the north of
Salem.  This appears supported by an area of favorable enhanced
mid/upper forcing for ascent, and the downstream environment appears
conducive to similar intensification and organization which has
occurred with the lead cluster.

With continuing thunderstorm intensification, and modest further
steepening of low-level rates in advance of the convection with
continuing insolation, the potential for strong to widely scattered
severe surface gusts seems likely to increase through 17-19Z.  While
most peak gusts might remain near or below 50 kts, some might become
locally damaging.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   41018643 42368324 42048245 41208255 40348349 39988444
            39338604 38438780 37858893 37968989 38788920 39498877
            40418672 41018643