259
FXUS62 KMLB 112017
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms continue near to north of
Orlando, while areas farther south are only seeing isolated
development at this time. Some of the CAM guidance does indicate
a surge in convection or at least stratiform rainfall across
southern areas through sunset, but with cloud cover limiting
instability and lack of additional boundaries, it is difficult to
say how much additional development there will be. CAM guidance
does at least agree in decreasing shower and storm coverage into
this evening, but still keeping some rain chances around 20-40
percent overnight. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches with some
isolated spots of 4" or higher are still possible, especially in
any persistent or repeated rounds of showers and storms through
this evening. This could produce minor flooding in low-lying, poor
drainage, and urban areas. Additional storm threats will include
lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph. With the
moist airmass in place, mild and humid conditions will continue
overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The surface
disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue
developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic.
NHC currently has a low chance of tropical development with this
system (around 20 percent) over the next 7 days, but regardless of
any development, high rain chances and potential for locally
heavy rainfall will still be the main concern across our area
through mid to late week. There are some differences in how far
south a front will make it across the northern FL peninsula and
potential for some decreasing PW values/lowering of rain chances
across this area. However, for now have higher rain chances around
70-80 percent continuing each day through late week, with the
potential for some showers and storms continuing during the
overnight hours, but lower in coverage. Rainfall amounts of 1-3"
with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible each day.
Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also
remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below
normal but muggy in the M-U80s.

Saturday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Low pressure off
the Mid-Atlantic seaboard will lift northeast, with a
wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the
weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes
from run-to-run). There remains some uncertainty in how much
moisture will persist across the area as we head later into the
weekend and into early next week, but moisture looks to remain
high enough to keep likely PoPs (60-70 percent) into the weekend,
falling to 50 percent on Monday. Highs largely continue in the mid
to upper 80s, with some low 90s forecast near to NW of I-4 each
afternoon. Lows remain in the low to mid 70s.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Tonight...Boating conditions will be poor to hazardous across the
coastal waters. Went with a short fused Small Craft Advisory for
the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast for
the remainder of the afternoon through much of tonight. S/SW winds
at buoy 41009 have been reaching around 20 knots already and some
guidance indicates that speeds around 20 to 25 knot will continue
into tonight. Over the nearshore waters of Brevard County and the
Treasure Coast, as well as offshore of Volusia County, small
craft should exercise caution for wind speeds up to 15-20 knots.
Across the nearshore waters of Volusia County wind speeds will be
around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to build up to 3-5 feet,
with occasional seas up to 6 feet offshore.

Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Subtle shifts
in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of
uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure
system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the
surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 10-15
kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or
SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will
depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better
confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT
lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could
become poor, they should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4
ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Ongoing convection is forecast to increase in coverage into the
afternoon. Prevailing MVFR CIGs are forecast generally around
2,000- 2,500 ft today, falling further at times overnight.
Convection is expected to diminish across the north around 0Z with
mention of VCSH potentially lingering through late evening.
Potential for -RA beyond 0Z at the Treasure Coast terminals. Winds
generally out of the south to southwest around 12 kts today.
Winds may become gusty and variable in vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  70
MCO  75  85  74  86 /  60  80  60  80
MLB  73  87  74  86 /  70  80  70  80
VRB  73  87  73  87 /  80  80  70  80
LEE  75  88  76  89 /  50  80  50  70
SFB  75  88  74  88 /  50  80  50  80
ORL  75  87  75  88 /  60  80  60  80
FPR  73  87  72  87 /  80  90  70  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Law