350
FXUS62 KMLB 100202
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1002 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Current-Overnight... Activity winding down this evening, with
scattered showers lingering across the Treasure coast. These
showers are expected to dissipate or move offshore over the next
hour or two. Showers and storms this afternoon and evening
concentrated across the south, mainly across the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee counties. These storms produced occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy
downpours.

Much like yesterday, hot and humid conditions continued today,
with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices of
102-108 degrees. Two climate sites reached record highs this
afternoon; Leesburg reached 98 degrees which tied their record
high (last set in 1985), and Vero Beach which reached 95 degrees
which broke their previous record of 94 degrees set in 1994.

Expect mostly dry conditions over land tonight, with isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms possible across the
Atlantic. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
VCTS/VCSH for FPR/SUA until 01/02Z. Any lingering convection will
dissipate or move offshore shortly after sunset. Mostly dry
overnight, with winds becoming light and veering to the southwest.
Winds will increase to 5-10 KT by early morning. The east coast
sea breeze is expected to form Monday by early afternoon and push
inland to just west of I-95, veering the wind to the southeast.
Rain and storm chances increase Monday. Have included VCTS
starting at 20Z for all inland sites as well as DAB, and starting
at 17/19Z for SUA-TIX, with SUA starting earliest. Have not
included TEMPOs at this time for Monday convection due to timing
and coverage uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight...Southeasterly winds veer south into this evening and
increase up to 15-20 knots offshore. Small craft should exercise
caution if venturing into the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard
counties tonight. Winds gradually diminish overnight to 10 to 15
knots as they continue to veer to the west to southwest. Seas will
range from 1-3 feet.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) Increasing moisture,
especially from Tuesday onward, will lead to higher rain and
isolated storm chances into mid week. On Monday, W/SW winds back to
the SSE behind the sea breeze, increasing and veering SSW again
Monday night (especially over the Gulf Stream). More persistent SSW
flow on Tuesday will back to the SSE by Wednesday and Thursday.
Repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected mid to
late week. Boating conditions deteriorate due to high rain and storm
chances, though seas outside of storms will generally remain 2-3 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Continued fire sensitive conditions continue Monday, as near record
heat continues and allows Min RH values to fall into the upper 30s
to low 40s, mainly across Lake and Volusia counties into the
afternoon. A gradual improvement to fire weather conditions is
expected then from Tuesday onward as moisture and subsequent rain
chances significantly increase. However, lightning strikes may lead
to additional fire starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  97  74  90 /  10  40  40  70
MCO  76  95  75  87 /  10  50  50  80
MLB  75  94  74  89 /  20  70  60  80
VRB  75  94  73  89 /  20  70  60  80
LEE  75  96  76  91 /   0  40  40  70
SFB  75  97  76  90 /  10  50  40  70
ORL  77  97  76  89 /  10  50  50  70
FPR  74  94  73  88 /  30  70  60  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Watson
RADAR...Sedlock/Heil