034
FXUS62 KMLB 130207
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1007 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A fairly quiet evening across east central Florida, in contrast to
what was a busy morning. An EF-1 tornado has been confirmed to
have caused the damage reported in Hobe Sound this morning by a
NWS Melbourne survey team. More information on this event can be
found in the latest Public Information Statement or on social
media.

Limited showers are present on radar as of around 930pm this
evening, though Invest 90L remains over the local area near the
northeast I-4 corridor. The low is forecast to move offshore into
the western Atlantic overnight, as the stationary front over north
Florida sags farther southward. CAMs are not enthused with too
much in the way of shower chances overnight, though a few showers
and storms will remain possible, especially across the south.
Thus, have reduced PoPs overnight, mainly north of the I-4
corridor. Areas in Martin County could see multiple rounds of
showers again towards daybreak. Additional amounts of 1-2" in
training cells could lead to flooding concerns. Overnight lows
tonight in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Coverage of showers and storms has diminished this evening, as
Invest 90L continues to work its way across the Florida peninsula
near the I-4 corridor. A few showers cannot be ruled out
overnight, so have maintained VCSH into the early morning hours.
Then, drier conditions forecast for much of the area, until
showers and storms develop once again Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. For SUA, have maintained -SHRA through the
period, with occasional VIS reductions, as precipitation is
forecast to continue near to just south of the area. MVFR CIGs
look to prevail through the overnight hours, before lifting by
mid-morning to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tonight...Broad low, designated Invest 90L, across the I-4
corridor will shift east-northeast and offshore of the coast
tonight. Poor boating conditions will continue offshore of
Brevard County and the Treasure Coast waters tonight as south to
southwest winds are forecast to remain up to 15 to 20 knots. Seas
are forecast to build slightly to 2-4 feet nearshore and up to 3-5
feet offshore. Shower and storm chances will remain high into this
evening, with potentially some decreasing coverage near to past
midnight. However, there will still be a lingering chance for
offshore moving showers and storms, some which could be gusty,
mainly south of the Cape late tonight and toward daybreak
Thursday.

Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Invest 90L departs
to the northeast, dropping the stationary front south across the
waters in its wake. Winds generally S-SW up to 10-15 kts south of
this boundary into Thursday, decreasing to 5-10 knots into Friday.
North of the boundary, mainly across the Volusia County waters,
winds become northerly 5-10 knots. Light offshore flow on Saturday
morning becomes S/SE by the afternoon and then becomes easterly into
Sunday as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind
speeds remain less than 15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet on Thursday fall to
1-3 ft Friday and into the weekend. High moisture and the frontal
boundary will continue high rain and storm chances through at least
late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  89 /  30  80  60  80
MCO  75  88  74  88 /  40  80  60  90
MLB  73  89  73  88 /  50  80  80  90
VRB  73  89  72  88 /  60  80  80  90
LEE  75  90  75  92 /  20  80  50  80
SFB  75  90  74  91 /  30  80  60  80
ORL  75  90  75  90 /  30  80  60  80
FPR  72  89  72  87 /  70  80  80  90

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Leahy