Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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034 FXUS62 KMLB 130207 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1007 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A fairly quiet evening across east central Florida, in contrast to what was a busy morning. An EF-1 tornado has been confirmed to have caused the damage reported in Hobe Sound this morning by a NWS Melbourne survey team. More information on this event can be found in the latest Public Information Statement or on social media. Limited showers are present on radar as of around 930pm this evening, though Invest 90L remains over the local area near the northeast I-4 corridor. The low is forecast to move offshore into the western Atlantic overnight, as the stationary front over north Florida sags farther southward. CAMs are not enthused with too much in the way of shower chances overnight, though a few showers and storms will remain possible, especially across the south. Thus, have reduced PoPs overnight, mainly north of the I-4 corridor. Areas in Martin County could see multiple rounds of showers again towards daybreak. Additional amounts of 1-2" in training cells could lead to flooding concerns. Overnight lows tonight in the lower to mid-70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 737 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Coverage of showers and storms has diminished this evening, as Invest 90L continues to work its way across the Florida peninsula near the I-4 corridor. A few showers cannot be ruled out overnight, so have maintained VCSH into the early morning hours. Then, drier conditions forecast for much of the area, until showers and storms develop once again Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. For SUA, have maintained -SHRA through the period, with occasional VIS reductions, as precipitation is forecast to continue near to just south of the area. MVFR CIGs look to prevail through the overnight hours, before lifting by mid-morning to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Tonight...Broad low, designated Invest 90L, across the I-4 corridor will shift east-northeast and offshore of the coast tonight. Poor boating conditions will continue offshore of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast waters tonight as south to southwest winds are forecast to remain up to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are forecast to build slightly to 2-4 feet nearshore and up to 3-5 feet offshore. Shower and storm chances will remain high into this evening, with potentially some decreasing coverage near to past midnight. However, there will still be a lingering chance for offshore moving showers and storms, some which could be gusty, mainly south of the Cape late tonight and toward daybreak Thursday. Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Invest 90L departs to the northeast, dropping the stationary front south across the waters in its wake. Winds generally S-SW up to 10-15 kts south of this boundary into Thursday, decreasing to 5-10 knots into Friday. North of the boundary, mainly across the Volusia County waters, winds become northerly 5-10 knots. Light offshore flow on Saturday morning becomes S/SE by the afternoon and then becomes easterly into Sunday as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind speeds remain less than 15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet on Thursday fall to 1-3 ft Friday and into the weekend. High moisture and the frontal boundary will continue high rain and storm chances through at least late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 90 73 89 / 30 80 60 80 MCO 75 88 74 88 / 40 80 60 90 MLB 73 89 73 88 / 50 80 80 90 VRB 73 89 72 88 / 60 80 80 90 LEE 75 90 75 92 / 20 80 50 80 SFB 75 90 74 91 / 30 80 60 80 ORL 75 90 75 90 / 30 80 60 80 FPR 72 89 72 87 / 70 80 80 90 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Leahy