291
FXUS63 KMQT 290651
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
251 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry air mass will support borderline elevated fire weather
conditions across parts of the interior west today.

- Below normal temperatures through tonight, then warming up through
  early next week.

- Areas of frost expected Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Surface trough moving south into Upper Michigan has supported a
couple isolated patches of light rain here and there in the past few
hours. This should end in the next hour or so as the trough
continues to drop south. Temps so far have been in the 40s and 50s.
Otherwise, surface high building south and east out of Ontario will
increasingly influence our weather through this period. The
increasing dry air and clearing skies may support efficient
radiational cooling in parts of the interior west this morning and I
wouldn`t be surprised if some spots drop into the upper 30s by
sunrise.

Today, the dry air will dominate as high pressure continues building
into the region. The cooler airmass should keep highs in the 50s by
Lake Superior and low-mid 60s elsewhere. Dinural heating should
promote healthy mixing and enable drier air aloft to mix down to the
surface. RH values are largely expected to fall to 25-30% away from
the lakeshores but isolated pockets of the interior west could see
RH in the 20-25% range. With this same area potentially climbing to
near 65F today, borderline elevated fire weather conditions will be
met. Winds are expected to be northerly at 10 mph or less in these
areas though, which should mitigate fire weather concerns. Across
the east, winds may build to 15-20 mph in some locations, but temps
are expected to remain in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the ern U.S., a
trough in the western U.S. and a ridge in the upper Mississippi
Valley 00z Thu. This ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri
with the trough moving into the northern plains. This trough moves
into the upper Great Lakes 00z Sat. Frost still looks likely
tonight, but below freezing temperatures look to be brief. Still not
confident enough though to get with a frost advisory though as most
guidance is warmer even though ideal radiational cooling with light
winds and a clear sky sets up tonight. Otherwise, did not make too
many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough on the west
coast, a trough in the upper Mississippi River Valley and a ridge in
the ern U.S. 12z Sat. The western trough moves into the Rockies 12z
Sun and into the northern plains 12z Mon and into Ontario 12z Tue.
Another trough moves into the Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern
plains 12z Wed. Temperatures remain above normal for this forecast
with a sfc front hanging around the area which could kick off some
convection at times. Only real dry period looks to be Sat night into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Expect VFR conditions to prevail in this forecast period at all TAF
sites under surface high pressure. VFR cigs should clear out by late
morning with mostly clear skies thereaafter. Expect mostly lake
breeze winds of 10 knots or less during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes and with no strong systems
passing by or through, the wind stays at or below 20 knots through
the forecast period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...07