780
FXUS63 KMQT 271152
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
752 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers/drizzle lingers today, gradually drying out
  from west to east. Patchy fog may accompany this and lower
  visibilities during the morning commute.

- A brief warmup into the 80s is expected this weekend into
  Monday, with showers and thunderstorms possible (around 50%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and WV imagery highlight the negatively
tilted shortwave over the Upper Midwest/NW Great Lakes with an
associated sfc low ~1007mb centered over N WI. The radar mosaic
indicates a swath of moderate to heavy (at times) shra extending
along an axes of 850-700mb f-gen primarily over Lake Superior. As
the sfc low, it`s associated LLJ and the shortwave all lift NE
today, this precip will continue to depart with it. Also with the
heaviest widespread precip already out of the way and no further
widespread/training convection anticipated during the remainder of
the period (despite MUCAPE values extending up to 1000j/kg over N
Lake MI), any hydro concerns have ended. Some thunder is possible
over the E this morning.

The remainder of today will be cool and dreary as wrap around low
level moisture keeps some NW Upslope -shra/dz in the fcst. This
should diminish from W to E today as weak high pressure begins to
build in from the S, but a trailing shortwave may provide enough
additional support to keep cloud cover and precip lingering on into
this evening. Some patchy fog is also anticipated given the recent
rainfall and abundant low level moisture, and may become dense at
times impacting the morning commute. When driving in fog, make sure
to use extra caution and have your low-beam headlights on. With
that, temps only reach into the upper 50s to 60s for most; a few
spots in the S may reach near 70.

Tonight cools into the upper 40s to upper 50s as weak high pressure
takes a better hold over the region and cyclonic flow aloft briefly
diminishes. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies look to hold on
into Sat and some additional patchy fog is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

An extremely zonal pattern will be over the northern tier of the
CONUS through the weekend, though looking north, a shortwave trough
will push into western northern Ontario by 12Z Sunday. This will
support a 1000-1005mb surface low pressure with a cold front draped
south of it passing into the UP in the overnight hours of Saturday
into Sunday. Increasing warm southerly flow ahead of the front will
allow for a notable warmup with NBM highs near 80. As the front
itself will be passing after peak heating, instability will be
present aloft (Euro ensemble suggesting MUCAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg in the west by 06Z Sunday) but lesser for surace-lifted parcels
(LREF SBCAPE under 1500 J/kg and beneath a cap in excess of -125
J/kg of MUCIN). Some shear will be present, but severe weather seems
unlikely at this time. As the frontal showers continue to push in
for Sunday, further questions are raised by increased model spread
in forcing, shear, and instability, though Euro ensemble joint
probabilities of at least 500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30+ kt of bulk
shear are in the 40-60% range, so severe weather cannot be ruled
out, but uncertainty remains high.

The pattern will begin to amplify once again for the early portion
of next work week as ridging builds over the Canadian and northern
US Rockies with troughing developing over the Great Lakes Basin. The
northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures close to seasonal,
but amplification of the troughing is expected to bring more
periodic chances of precipitation and thunderstorms especially in
the evening hours with peak heating. This could cause some hazards
for outdoors plans this week ahead of Independence Day, so planners
should monitor the forecast for changes as the pattern becomes more
defined and details emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 751 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The 12Z TAF period starts off with LIFR/VLIFR flight restrictions as
the UP transitions over to an upslope dz/-shra with low cigs
pattern, but gradual improvement is expected this afternoon and
evening as weak high pressure begins to build in overhead. TEMPO
groups were added for early on in the period as patchy dense fog
impacts all sites. Moist NW upslope flow may be stubborn on
improving conditions, especially at CMX so PROB30 groups were added
to accommodate lower confidence...future updates likely will be
needed. Otherwise, NW winds around 7-10 kts are expected with gusts
up to 20 kts likely late this afternoon at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Easterly to northeasterly wind gusts around 25 kts are expected this
morning. Wind gusts fall around 20 kts for this afternoon over the
central and east, below 20 kts over the west as winds back northwest
with a low pressure moving across the region. Peak wave heights are
expected this morning around 3-6 ft, then waves fall below 3 ft by
tonight. Winds and waves then remain mostly calm as only weaker
pressure systems affect the lake for the weekend into next week,
though periodic thunderstorms may occasionally be over the lake,
with the highest chances being late Saturday night through Sunday
evening.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...GS/Jablonski