Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 232226
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
626 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

Benign conditions currently will give way to a more active pattern
as the Upper Peninsula sits underneath the ring of fire through
tomorrow. Mid- to upper-level ridging centered over the
Mississippi River Valley is allowing for the local forecast area
to sit on its periphery. Weak shortwave traversing through early
tomorrow, coupled with just enough of an increase in atmospheric
moisture, should allow for showers to trigger first thing in the
morning across the western portions of the U.P., progressing
eastward throughout the day. An uptick of instability by tomorrow
afternoon could allow for thunderstorms to develop, although they
currently look to remain of the garden variety type.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue tonight into tomorrow
with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s in the interior. Lows
tonight will struggle to drop below the upper 40s, with most
locations staying in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

Above normal temperatures expected to continue through the extended
forecast along with scattered showers and thunderstorms through much
of the Memorial Day weekend.

A shortwave swinging across the area Friday will provide steepened
lapse rates for increased coverage for showers and thunderstorms
across the U.P., most concentrated over the western U.P. The
focusing mechanism will be a weak surface trough/wind shift
sliding into the are in the afternoon/early evening hours. MLCAPES
increase to 1000-2000J/kg. Deep layer shear around 20 to 25kt
will keep most thunderstorm below severe limits and more in line
with pulse-type thunderstorms. Any severe threat would likely be
limited to gusty winds and small hail. In fact, SPC has
highlightedthe western U.P. for a marginal risk for Friday.
Temperatures will be well into the 80s away from southerly flow
off Lake MI.

Another shortwave is set to slide across the area Saturday morning
into the early afternoon hours, helping mlcape values reach to
around 1000J/kg. Models are showing that deep layer shear may be in
the 20 to 30 knot range; however, with the shortwave set to slide
east of the area by the afternoon hours, severe chances may be
limited.

There may be a few rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm on
Sunday; however, coverage and intensity will likely be much more
muted.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 626 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 347 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

Fog currently engulfing northern Lake Michigan has continued to
advect northward, pooling along the Schoolcraft/Mackinac County
land/water boundaries. This fog is anticipated to persist through
the overnight hours into early tomorrow morning before finally
dissipating. Otherwise, no significant marine hazards are expected
for the next couple of days with winds topping out at around 10-15
knots through tomorrow, briefly becoming stronger across eastern
Lake Superior and Lake Michigan/Bay of Green bay overnight
tomorrow.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
  Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...lg
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...lg



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