076
FXUS61 KRNK 260711
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
311 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances will pass across the lower Mid-Atlantic
through Monday, triggering rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
pass across the central Appalachians Monday evening, ushering in
drier and slightly cooler weather for much of the coming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Mostly sunny and warm today, so keep plenty of cool non-
alcoholic beverages and sunscreen handy if remaining outdoors
for extended periods of time.

2. A line of showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the
west this evening, a few of which are likely to become severe.

3. Another line of showers and thunderstorms may arrive early
on Memorial Day, though timing and intensity are less certain.

Starting the morning off with mostly clear skies and light
winds, making for the perfect setup for the development of
patchy fog. IR satellite imagery already depicts fog filling in
the mountain river valleys, a trend that will continue over the
next few hours.

With mostly clear skies in place after sunrise, temperatures
will spike upward, allowing fog to burn off quickly after 8 am.
Temperatures will max out in the upper 70s to the mid 80s by
mid-afternoon. Will be keeping an eye on the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms arriving from the west and
reaching the Interstate 77 corridor during the 5 pm to 7 pm
timeframe. The storms will then race quickly to the east,
reaching the Highway 29 corridor in the Piedmont during the 7 pm
to 9 pm timeframe.

With a day of strong heating expected, believe there will be
enough energy in the atmosphere to allow a few storms to
intensify to severe levels, more so across the mountains as the
storms arrive just after maximum daytime heating. The main
threat will be damaging winds, though large hail and even an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. There is also the chance
of heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding, though
these storms will be moving fast enough that prolonged heavy
rain will remain a remote possibility.

By 10 pm, the severe threat will temporarily diminish as the
line passes out of our area to the east, bringing a brief lull
in the organized activity, with only residual showers to contend
with. However, decent agreement exists in the rapid update
weather forecast models that another line of storms will
approach from the west during the predawn hours of Monday. Not
as confident on the timing of this next round of activity or its
intensity given that it would be entering an environment
drained of instability by the earlier round of storms.

Expect early morning lows to start Memorial Day to range from
the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Front on Monday could bring strong storms

2: Things quiet down Tuesday

During the night Sunday and into Monday a strong cold front will
continue to raise precip chances, with a maximum on Monday
afternoon. Some of the highest instability we`ve seen of late
will also be in place over the area on Monday, with models
suggesting 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE over most of the CWA. Ensemble
guidance also agrees on a high probability of enhanced CAPE. As
such Monday is the day we are focusing on for a potential severe
weather outbreak. We currently have a slight risk outlook for
severe weather. Given the wet antecedent conditions from daily
showers and storms since last Thursday, the convective nature of
Monday`s storms could also lend itself to flash flooding due to
heavy rain.

Tuesday will much calmer in the wake of the front, though there
could be a few mountain showers due to an embedded shortwave
rotating around through the backside of a trough axis. East of
the mountains there will be little to no rain.

Temperatures will be above normal in the low to mid 80s through
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Largely quiet forecast with cooling temperatures

After Monday`s frontal passage, we will be positioned on the
western side of a mid-level trough, and the eastern side of a
surface high. For most of the week, this will force northerly or
northwesterly flow, and consequently, cold air advection.
Temperatures will be on the decline through Friday, when temps
will be around or a few degrees below normal. The mountains will
have scattered to broken cloud cover due to the flow, and some
isolated diurnal showers could form up Thursday. The surface
high will transition to directly overhead the Mid-Atlantic by
Friday, shutting off rain chances even further.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

Patchy fog this morning given mostly clear skies and light
winds. Fog particularly thick in the mountain river valleys,
including LWB and BCB. Expected to burn off quickly after 26/12Z
given sunshine and strong heating.

Expect winds from the south today at less than 10kts. VFR
conditions expected through most of the day until a line of
showers and thunderstorms arrives during late afternoon. This
line is expected to move rapidly from west to east, impacting
the mountains during the 26/21Z to 27/00Z timeframe, and the
Piedmont during the 26/23Z to 27/02Z timeframe. A few storms
across the mountains are likely to become severe, producing
damaging wind gusts, though large hail and an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out also. Downpours and low ceilings will
accompany the storms, but are expected to remain temporary,
improving as the convection passes.

Lingering debris cloud cover tonight will limit fog formation,
though patches of fog may redevelop. Will be keeping an eye on
the potential for another line of storms during the predawn
hours of Monday, though uncertainty exits in both the timing
and intensity of this activity given that it may arrive late at
night when instability is diminished.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
daytime hours of Monday. MVFR conditions remain likely with any
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon have a
chance of producing heavy rain, hail, damaging winds, and
frequent lightning.

A front will cross through the area late Monday into early
Tuesday, turning winds to the northwest and eventually bringing
drier air to much of the area. A low chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across WV Tuesday and Wednesday,
otherwise VFR.

Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG/NF